Tilting at Windmills

We start our in-depth look at the Big 12 landscape this year in the North where graduations affect some, not so much others and, when it comes down to it, scheduling could play the most important part.

The look from here says Nebraska’s combination of scheduling and defense should be enough to get them to the Big 12 championship game at Jerryworld in December. It won’t be easy, though, as Kansas may have something to say about it, as will question marks in the offense.

1. Nebraska

Bill Callahan nearly ran a once-proud program into the ground. At times, he seemed more concerned with throat-slashes, fans “throwing fruit,” and being a general all-around asshat than he did coaching the Big Red machine. Former Husker assistant Bo Pelini took over the helm last season, turning around a team that had gone 5-7 in 2007 (just their second losing season in 40 years – both of them under Callahan) and guided them to 10 wins and a Gator Bowl win.

Pelini will be replacing quarterback Joe Ganz, who threw for 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2008. Sophomore Zac Lee looks to be the one getting the nod, although he’s only thrown two career passes. He’ll have running back Roy Helu behind him, who despite starting just two games in 2008, led the team in rushing yards (803) and rushing touchdowns (7).

Fans hope Pelini, a defensive coach by trade, can bring back the Blackshirts. They’ll rally around 6’4″, 300-pound, senior defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who led the Husker defense in tackles (85), sacks (7.5), interceptions (2 … really, he led the team in picks??), QB hurries (7) and seconds on extra gravy boats at the Omaha Cracker Barrel.

Scheduling is where the Huskers get the biggest break. Yes, they have to play Oklahoma, but it’s in Lincoln. Yes, they have to go to Columbia and Lawrence, but the Tigers and Jayhawks have scheduling problems of their own. In the usual battle of attrition in the Big 12 North, Nebraska should be the team coming out on top and playing for the Big 12 Championship in December.

2. Kansas

The force is strong in Lawrence with pequeña signal-caller Todd Reesing returning for his senior season, and All-American candidate wideout Dezmon Briscoe (he’s still wide open down the sidelines, Venables … cover his ass) set to become the school’s all-time receptions leader before conference play even starts. In my mind, Mark Mangino is one of the best coaches in the country and will have the Rock Chalkers in contention for the North title. In fact, they’ll probably be favored to beat Nebraska in Lawrence on November 14. However, they do have to play Oklahoma (in Lawrence, thankfully) and make trips to Lubbock and Austin. That’s potentially three losses right there and dropping that many games in the North this year will have you sitting at home watching the Big 12 CCG.

3. Missouri

Although they’re the two-time reigning Big 12 North representative in the championship game, head coach Gary Pinkel will be retooling the offense after losing their biggest tool, Chase Daniel. All-world wideout and return specialist Jeremy Maclin will be drawing a paycheck from the Phildalphia Eagles in 2009, so Pinkel will have his cutesy, why-the-hell-are-you-calling-a-trick-play-NOW work cut out for him. Can 6’5″ quarterback Blaine Gabbert and 1,000-yard rusher Derrick Washington be enough on offense? In the Big 12 North, maybe. However, they open conference play with Nebraska, then go to Stillwater seven days later and come back home the next week to host Texas. Mizzou needs to win at least one of those three to have any shot at the Big 12 north title.

4. Colorado

Now we’re just drawing straws for the lower half of the North division. Colorado probably has enough talent to eek out the Kansas and Iowa ag schools, but unless they have a winning record and go bowling (doubtful and seriously doubt it), Dan Hawkins might be coaching intramurals this time next year. The Hawk may be platooning quarterbacks and running backs, and the defense loses six starters. The Buffs’ saving grace is that they get Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri all in Boulder. CU fans shudder at the thought of roadtrips to Austin and Stillwater, though.

5. Kansas State

Goodnight, sweet Prince. Hello again, Bill Snyder. The Wildcat fanbase doesn’t even acknowledge having a B.S. (before-Snyder) football program and, well, maybe they’re right. Snyder did accomplish one of the major turnarounds in college football history, taking the worst program in the history of the sport and making them conference title contenders. However, that was the Big 8. Snyder’s biggest win? A Big 12 conference title game shellacking over OU. The Wildcats must go to Norman on Halloween this year and unless he can raise the ghost of Darren Sproles, that one could get ugly. Other road trips to Lincoln and Lubbock mean … well, you get the picture.

6. Iowa State

A new year, a new Auburn DC running the ship in Ames. Surely Paul Rhoads can’t do worse than Gene Chizik’s two years there. I’ll put on my Harry Carey voice (just go with it) and ask: how does a guy who went 5-19 get the head coach position at Auburn? Austen Arnaud is a talented quarterback, but he might have to carry the load by himself. Unless you’re Vince Young (and he’s not), a one-man show is not going to win in Lawrence, Columbia and Lincoln. ISU also draws OSU and Baylor (in Ames) out of the South. The Bears’ Robert Griffin already went apeshit on the Cyclones once – he may just do it again.

Here we are, folks. The heat is bearing down, we’re relegated to watching Tour de France and tennis (I’m sure some of you are actually baseball fans) and we’re pat-pat-patting our feet in anticipation of late August and early September.

Well, it’s closer than we think. Students will be returning to campus in about a month, meaning fall practices will be starting around the same time. We at TaW are itching to get going now, though.

So, to cure your football fix through the heat and anticipation in July, we’re going to bring you a six-week series previewing the fortunes of all 12 conference teams and their coaches.

We’ll start this week with Nebraska and culminate in August with your Oklahoma Sooners. Here’s a preview of what to expect:

Week of July 6

Nebraska

In his first full season at the helm of the Cornhuskers, Bo Pelini improved a 5-7 team in 2007 to 9-4 in 2008. ponderos will look at what the defensive-minded Pelini can do to capitalize on the Huskers’ big bowl win over Clemson and what the Big Red will look like with junior Zac Lee taking over from the prolific Joe Ganz under center.

Just sayin ...

Week of July 13

Missouri

How will Mizzou look in the post-Chase Daniel era? We’ll find out a lot about Gary Pinkel’s coaching ability as he cobbles together an offense without the talents of Daniel and all-everything receiver Jeremy Maclin.

Iowa State

The Cyclones are hoping that another ex-Auburn defensive coordinator, Paul Rhoads, can turn around the fortunes from the mess left behind by Gene Chizik. ISU is paying Rhoads a reported $5.75 million over 5 years, so at least the financial commitment is there. ponderos will examine ISU’s upcoming 2009 season, which will ride and fall on the shoulders of second-year starter, dual-threat quarterback Austen Arnaud.

Week of July 20

Colorado

Is Dan Hawkins on the hot seat? He’s 8-17 in his three years in Boulder and has yet to have a winning season. TaW’s Blatant Homer will talk about whether Hawkins can put enough wins together in 2009 to save his job.

Kansas

Mark Mangino might be the most underrated coach in the country. He’s 3-1 in bowl games since taking over in 2002, including a big BCS win in the 2007 FedEx Orange Bowl. Oread Boom Kings’ Hiphopopotamus will give a Kansas fan’s perspective of the 2009 season, which will no doubt include a look at quarterback Todd Reesing, who might just be the best signal-caller in the Big 12 north this year.

Week of July 27

Kansas State

“Sleepless in Manhattan” returns to the Purple Power this year as Bill Snyder tries to turn around a program that unceremoniously dumped Ron Prince under dubious circumstances. TaW’s Coach Bo has a, ahem … special affinity for the Wildcats and will bring a unique perspective to the KSU 2009 preview. Don’t forget your Power Towel!

Baylor

TaW’s Big 12 South coverage will begin in Waco where the preseason excitement hasn’t been this high in over 20 years when Grant Teaff was at the helm. Sophomore quarterback Robert Griffin is for real and is already giving coaches around the Big 12 gameplanning fits (H/T, Mike Sherman). TaW’s Blatant Homer will preview the Bears’ 2009 chances under second-year head coach Art Briles, who already has an A&M pelt on his wall and scared the bejeezus out of Tech and Missouri last season.

Week of August 3

Texas Tech

It bears repeating: Tech beat Texas last year. The single-biggest win in corsair Mike Leach’s career caused the entire Longhorn nation to collectively and permanantly lodge their panties in their cracks. The Tortilla Retort’s dedfischer will look at the monumental task Leach has in front of him this year after losing quarterback Graham Harrell and All-American wideout Michael Crabtree.

Oklahoma State

How many years will OSU be a program on the rise? Mike “I’m a man!” Gundy had his Cowboys in the Top 10 at one time last year and many feel they should be there in the preseason, mainly due to dual-threat quarterback Zac Robinson. TaW’s duncansooner takes one for the team to research and document the Pokes’ 2009 season. No word on if he’ll offend any mothers … of children.

Week of August 10

Texas A&M

Second-year head coach Mike Sherman (4-8 in his first year at College Station) would be on one of the hottest seats in the country were it not for other problems in College Station. TaW will look at whether the Sherminator can solve the myriad of problems facing the Aggies in 2009, which include doing something about a 3-10 record to the Lubbock Sand Aggies since the inception of the Big 12, and what looks to be an ugly trip to Norman.



Don't you wish you had him back, Aggies?

Texas

BCS-gate, Asterisk-gate and another year without a conference title. Sounds like nothing much has changed for Mack Brown and the Horns. They’re pinning their hopes on a 2-1 record in the last 3 games against Oklahoma, though. TaW will look at UT’s fortunes with third-place Heisman finisher Colt McCoy returning for his senior season and Sergio Kindle trying desperately to stay on the team, barring his turning any more west campus housing into a Junior’s Party Barn drive-thru.



Add that to the trophy case, Mack.

Week of August 17

Oklahoma

Is this the year Stoops finally gets over the BCS hump? Some publications are putting OU’s defense as tops in the country. Indeed, the Sooners’ defensive line could rival the Harris-Dvoracek front from the early 2000s. Heisman winner Sam Bradford will have to prove his worth after losing four of five of his guys up front, but he still has dangerous weapons like two 1,000-yard rushers in DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown, plus the freakishly-talented Jermaine Gresham.

Wednesday, ponderos. The men’s Big 12 tournament starts on Wednesday, NOT Thursday. They’re starting on Wednesday so the NCAA selection committee won’t have any excuses when they shaft one of the teams on Sunday since they will have chosen their teams already by the time the tournament is usually done.

Thank you, inside voice. Go back to whatever you were doing.

Yes, the 13th Big 12 men’s basketball tournament starts tomorrow at the Ford Center (home of yourrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr OKC Thunder!) in idyllic downtown Oklahoma City. While you’re there, head over to the track if you have a moment. Hitting a quinella at Remington Park is dominance defined.

Personal grooming habits have been an issue with the Thunder's new cheerleader.

As always, the first round games are of interest to fans of teams who couldn’t get the first round bye, and those teams who await them on Thursday (not Friday). The team probably most disappointed to be playing on humpday is Texas, which thought it would be able to rest on Wednesday after beating a Griffin-less OU. That was before laying eggs at Stillwater and Lawrence.

Some interesting facts from Big 12 tournament history:

• Only four teams have won the conference tourney: KU (6), OU (3 straight), OSU (2), and ISU (1).
• The conference’s regular season winner has won the post season tournament 7 times: Kansas (5), OSU (1), Iowa State (1).
• This is the second time the Ford Center has hosted the Big 12 tournament. The last time was 2007 when Kansas won an 88-84 thriller over Kevin Durant and four other Longhorns.
• Kansas is the winningest team in the Big 12 tournament at 25-6. OU is second at 19-9.

2009 Big 12 Tournament Bracket

Here’s a quick, just past the boxscores look at the first round games:

#8 Nebraska (18-11) vs. #9 Baylor (17-13). The Huskers don’t have a player over 6’5” who logs significant minutes, yet they were able to beat much bigger teams like Texas and Mizzou in Lincoln, plus a 20-point face-rape of K-State. Nebraska will play about eleventy-million quick, ankle-biting guards who will harass and bug the shit out of you. That might be enough against Baylor, which after looking like they might be this year’s NCAA Cinderella early in the year, turned into the proverbial pumpkin mid-season. After beating K-State and running their record to 15-3, the Bears went to Norman and got absolutely blasted by the Sooners, beginning a 10 of 12 losing streak. The last of those losses was to Nebraska, in Waco, when all Baylor had to do was hang onto the ball in the last two minutes of the game to win. The Bears need Curtis Jerrells and LaceDarius Dunn to light it up for them to have a chance to win. Nebraska should be able to use its speed and ballhawking (they average 8.4 steals per game) to advance to a Thursday matchup with Kansas.

Sure do like pumpkins, Cotton.

#5 Texas (20-10) vs. #12 Colorado (9-21). The Longhorns got a great draw, despite losing their first round bye. They get to play the worst team in the conference in the first round, then are bracketed with K-State should they win. It wasn’t quite that easy when the Horns played the Buffs last, though. Second team all-conference gift receiver Damion James clanked two free throws at the end of regulation that would have won the game. James made up for it in OT, though, single-handedly outscoring the Buffs to beat them in Boulder. A.J. Abrams was on that night, pouring in 29, but UT had no answer for CU wing Cory Higgins and his 34 points. I don’t know what Barnes is going to do to counter Higgins this time around, but it needs to be something different. Still, I’m thinking Texas will be fine here and should get through to play K-State on Thursday with its front line of Pittman, Johnson and James overpowering the young, small CU post players. Colorado has to hope that Higgins goes ballistic again and Texas starts playing WTF ball like they have at times this season.

#7 Oklahoma State (20-10) vs. #10 Iowa State (15-16). This will be a de-facto home game for the Pokes. Considering this is a school that includes barrel-racing championships as a “we own you” stat, you can pretty much guarantee that there will be copious amounts of deer season-orange littering the Ford. OSU is likely already in the NCAA tournament, but at least one win in the conference tournament would seal the deal. The Cowboys are on a good run right now, winning six out of their last seven. They began that run with a 19-point win over the Cyclones in Stillwater. ISU has a mirror-image streak, losers of 11 out of their last 14. Two players to watch are ISU’s Craig Brackins (20.1 ppg) and OSU’s James Anderson (18.9 ppg), the second and third leading scorers in the conference, respectively. OSU’s supporting cast is much better, though, with three other players scoring in double figures. That coupled with the intangible of OK State playing in front of a home crowd should push them past ISU and into a Thursday Bedlam rematch with Oklahoma.

#6 Texas A&M (23-8) vs. #11 Texas Tech (13-18). The Aggies might be the most underrated team in the conference. They’ve quietly rolled up 23 wins, including their last six straight. A&M has signature wins against Mizzou and Texas, both of those at Reed Arena in College Station. Their big weapon is 6’7” wing Josh Carter, who’s hitting 40% from the three point line. His size makes him a tough cover at the 3, but he sometimes has trouble creating his own shot. A&M swept the season series against Tech, although both were tight, including the Aggies’ 6-point, foul-plagued win in Lubbock. Tech has gone from the team nobody wanted to play in the NCAA not too many years ago to nearly the Big 12 doormat, losing 16 out of its last 19. Raiders’ fans would like to say they’ve seen improvement since East Central Oklahoma dropped 167 points on them back in November, but they really can’t (unless you count not having a buck and a half scored on you again as an improvement). A&M wins this one easy and advances to play Mizzou on Thursday.