Tilting at Windmills

A new year, a new set of challenges across the Big 12 landscape.

Who will be the preseason glamour boy who falters early, causing us to question why we ever put him on that pedestal in the first place (whither Chase Daniel)? Who is Mike Leach going to have throw the ball eleventy-million times a game, making us go “gosh, where’d he find THIS guy?” Who’s going to feel like they got “screwed” at the end of the season, paying no attention to their own foibles that got them in their mess to begin with?

Picking another winner, I see.

Ladies and gentlemen, and TaW readers, without further adieu, we present to you … the 2009 Big 12.

As we alluded to over the weekend, this begins a six-week series breaking down each team’s chances this fall. Obviously, some (OU, Texas, Nebraska) will have better chances than others (Iowa State, Colorado, Aggy). We’ll start breaking down the Big 12 North later this week, but for now, let’s take a look at who we think has the best shot at surviving the standing 8 at the end of the year.

It'll be hard to go unscathed this year, yo.

Big 12 champion

If you think you’re going to get anybody but Oklahoma in this slot on an OU blog, you’re delusional. You also haven’t paid attention to OU’s six Big 12 titles (seven appearances in the Big 12 CCG) in the past nine years. The Sooners’ main weapon in winning the last three straight titles is the fact that nobody can touch them in Norman, meaning you can pretty much chalk up four conference wins right there (Baylor, Kansas State, A&M, OSU). Stoops is an astonishing 60-2 at Owen Field and the Sooners have the nation’s longest home winning streak at 24 straight. That’s not to say OU doesn’t have any potential minefields, though. They’ll have one of the toughest schedules in the country, which includes a trip to Miami (I don’t care what their record says, Miami at Miami speaks for itself), a game in Lubbock where OU has lost two straight and … oh yeah: October 17 in Dallas.

The Sooners are looking for a four-peat in 2009.

Big 12 runner-up

The North sacrificial lamb representative has usually been a process of elimination with the past couple of years, Missouri showing up by virtue of having actual talent on the field (sorry, Kansas). This year, it’s Nebraska. Although Bo Pelini’s v2.1 Cornhusker squad will be replacing quarterback Joe Ganz (presumably his brother Cherry won’t come looking for him) and running back Marlon Lucky, we think quarterback Zac Lee (what we’ve seen of him) can at least manage to turn around and hand the ball to RB Roy Helu, who ran for 803 yards last year. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (whose name in the Cameroon Ngema tribe means “House of Spears” – no, we’re not making that up) is being compared to a jumbo-sized Rich Glover.

Bowl teams

This is where the Big 12 should make a good showing with as many as 8 teams playing postseason games.

BCS teams

No surprise here. OU and Texas are both good enough and both team’s schedules line up (although for opposite reasons) well enough to get them both into marquee bowls. Who goes to the Rose Bowl playing for all the marbles and who is in the Fiesta against a Big 10 patsy will be determined in October.

Cotton Bowl

Nebraska gets a break on the Big 12 South rotation (they get Oklahoma and Tech at home, then have to play Baylor in Waco) and should look good enough come December that even a loss in the Big 12 CCG should send them back to Dallas for this one.

Holiday Bowl

Look for the winner of the November 14 game in Stillwater to get an invitation to San Diego. The outlook from here says it will be OSU over Texas Tech, which should dovetail into the …

Alamo Bowl

Although technically the Gator Bowl could take a Big 12 team before the guys in San Antonio get a chance, you know the San Antonio city officials would just love to have the Sand Aggies at the Alamodome and their fans stumbling around the Riverwalk for a weekend.

Gator Bowl

Should the Alamo pick first, that means we’re likely to see somebody like Kansas in Jacksonville. The Jayhawks have a BCS win on their resume and would be a very attractive pick. However, if they’re able to ambush Nebraska in Lawrence on November 14, all bets are off here.

Sun Bowl

Their fans might be disappointed after going to the Big 12 championship the past two years, but at least Missouri wouldn’t have to deal with an Oklahoma woodshedding in El Paso. Mizzou faces big tests on the road at Stillwater (yeah, I said it) and neutral site games with Kansas and Illinois. They get Texas and Nebraska in Columbia, which should at least give them better odds in those games.

Insight, Independence or Texas Bowl

This is where the WAGging starts. You know what? Screw it. Baylor’s going bowling, folks. Put em in the Texas or Independence Bowl and they’ll travel, too. If the Baptists (and Robert Griffin, they probably don’t even care if worships the devil at this point) are playing past November, they won’t mind where.