Tilting at Windmills

It still seems so far away...

Every spring Vegas throws degenerate college football gamblers a bone and puts out its odds for winning the national championship. It’s a complete sucker play, but it never stops me from poring over the list. Inevitably, I end up setting something like a “Wisconsin +3500” ticket on fire around the third week on the season. Keep that in mind as you read through this little primer on handicapping preseason futures. (And please excuse the rampant metaphor mixing about to be thrust upon you.)

"Bro, Florida can't lose!"

Anyway, before we get into my actual calls, let’s consider how I approach these kinds of picks. Mainly, I try to avoid favorites if at all possible. Vinny from Parsippany—hitting up Sin City for a weekend of $5 blackjack, watered-down cocktails and standing in line at Pure with his boys—and every other numbnuts in town loves these plays. The return is lousy and not really worth your money, given all the variables that go into winning a national championship. If you’re looking for a textbook example, consider how everyone holding a Patriots ticket for the Super Bowl last year felt about 30 minutes into the season.

So, with that in mind, let’s move on to the picks. Also, a few weeks ago I wrote about my favorite plays for individual games in the upcoming season if you’re interested in checking that out.

Buffett Special

Georgia (+5000)

The Oracle of Omaha relishes the value play, and I think Georgia definitely qualifies.

Yes, I realize that the Dawgs have to contend with this year’s 800-pound gorilla, Florida, in their own division within the SEC. And, yes, I’m well aware that UGa loses first-round draft picks at the skill positions in Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno. I also know that Mark Richt is looking at a bear of schedule.

So what? Georgia is well-coached and deep at just about every position. Plus, maybe there’s a little Tee Martin quality to new signal caller Joe Cox. At these odds, the Bulldogs are worth a shot.

Dog With Fleas

Alabama (+2000)

'Bama's a dog, Bud

The number of Tide returning starters certainly is eye-catching. The problem is that ‘Bama lost offensive players—John Parker Wilson, Andre Smith, Antoine Caldwell, Glen Coffee—who played a huge role in the team’s success last year. We don’t know much about their replacements, but it should shock no one if the Crimson Tide offense doesn’t get rolling until about midseason. Prediction: Virginia Tech dashes Alabama’s title hopes in week one.

Dark Horse

Notre Dame (+2000)

Prepare for a nauseating fall of “the Irish are back!” If you believe the recruiting rankings, Charlie Weis has assembled some talent under the Golden Dome. Weis’ charges showed flashes of competence in 2008, and with a tissue-soft schedule like the one ND will face this season, an undefeated regular season isn’t completely out of the question. (There is the matter of USC, but work with me here.) If that comes to fruition, it won’t matter if there are 10 squads that deserve it more—the Irish will be in Pasadena playing for the whole shebang. From there, who knows?

Fuhgedaboutit

Field (+2000)

Given the growing respect for non-BCS teams, the field may receive a little more attention than usual—BYU, Utah, Boise St., TCU, etc. What’s the use? If the past season should have taught us anything, it’s that these teams still don’t have a prayer when it comes to winning the national championship. Until history proves otherwise, you might as well set your money on fire.

East Carolina? Burn, baby, burn