Tilting at Windmills

An opponent's ass was a common sight for CU's D in 2008

Seriously, how did this team win five games last year? We’ve already covered Colorado’s putrid offense, and the story was no better on the other side of the ball:

• Scoring Defense: 29.0 points per game (87th);
• Rushing Defense: 166.5 yards per game (88th);
• Passing Defense: 215.3 yards per game (73rd).

The Buffs also finished 98th in turnovers forced, with a turnover margin of -7 on the season.

Whereas the offense is bringing back eight starters from last year, CU’s defense has just four returnees on the defensive side of the ball. Addition by subtraction? Let’s take a look.

Defensive Line

CU runs a four-man front, and the entire unit must be replaced in 2009. The ’08 group didn’t really set the bar that high, though. For example, the Buffs averaged two sacks per game last season, 60th in the country, while facing an average of 31.7 passing attempts. The D-line didn’t generate much push either, producing 5.75 tackles for loss per game, 67th overall.

Fortunately for line coach Romeo Bandison, he gains a talented newcomer who should see the field right off the bat. Nick Kasa, ranked by Rivals as the third-best defensive end in the 2009 freshman class, is expected to lock down one of the edge spots. A 6-7, 250-pound native Coloradan, Kasa is considered an outstanding all-around prospect who gets after the quarterback and defends the run well. Junior Marquez Herrod had 14 tackles in three starts last year, and he looks like Kasa’s bookend.

Taj Kaynor and Eugene Goree are penciled in as the starters at tackle. Goree saw action in 10 games on both O-line and D-line as a redshirt freshman in ’08. Sophomore Curtis Cunningham, a highly touted recruit, eventually could unseat Kaynor. In fact, he may start as soon as opening day.

Linebackers

Thank God Lynn Katoa picked Colorado over Oklahoma. Sooner fans were bummed when the stud ‘backer out of Utah powerhouse Salt Lake City Cottonwood opted for CU. Katoa immediately ran into off-the-field issues in Boulder and was suspended for the 2008 season before eventually leaving the team.

However, the Buffs snapped up another defensive cornerstone in Katoa’s class who should mitigate the loss. Redshirt freshman Jon Major should start at strong side linebacker. The five-star recruit out of Parker, Colo., was ranked by Phil Steele as the second-best linebacker out of high school in 2008. After sitting out a year with an ACL injury, “Major Payne” should provide a tough, run-stuffing presence on the CU defense.

"I've been redshirting since Mo' Money!"

Major will look to two seasoned vets to show him the way this year. Middle linebacker Jeff Smart started every game in ’08, finishing the year with 118 tackles and a spot on the All-Big 12 second team. Next to him on the weak side will be Shaun Mohler, who received honorable mention for the all-conference team last year after compiling 97 tackles.

Secondary

CU returns a pair of proven cornerbacks to lead its defensive backfield in ’09. The Buffs will count on undersized senior Cha’pelle Brown, an honorable mention all-conference selection last year, to lock down one side of the field. Opposite Brown is likely to be uninspiring junior Jimmy Smith. Look for senior corner Benjamin Burney to work his way into the mix, though, following a medical redshirt in ’08.

Sophomore FS Anthony “Psycho” Perkins showed some promise last year. Perkins started four games as a redshirt freshman, ringing up 40 tackles along the way. However, redshirt freshman Ray Polk could push for time at the free safety position as well. Patrick Mahnke, a sophomore who saw action in all 12 games last season, is the likely starter at strong safety.

Overview

Given the personnel—particularly at linebacker—CU could turn out to be nasty against the run in ’09. Unfortunately for defensive coordinator Ron Collins, the Buffs play in the pass-happy Big 12. Can the front four generate a pass rush? Will the youngsters at safety step up in pass coverage? If not, Collins will have to tide himself over with the thought of having Kasa and Major coming back in 2010. (Assuming he’s coming back in 2010, of course.)

"Are you trying to get me fired, son?"

Charismatic Colorado coach Dan Hawkins made his name at Boise State by carrying on the program’s tradition of lighting up the scoreboard, but it’s safe to say he’s learned the difference between competing week to week in the Big 12 and playing intramurals in the WAC. The Buffaloes ended 2008 with a 2-6 record in conference play, thanks largely to their completely identity-less offense.

While the rest of the Big 12 made waves with prodigious air attacks, the Buffs’ passing game sputtered all season. The combination of Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen created a true two-headed monster at quarterback–a beast that struck fear only in the hearts of CU fans. The team finished the year last in the Big 12 in passing efficiency, ranking 90th in the country. Whether by choice or necessity, the Buffaloes also demonstrated zero ability to stretch the field through the air, averaging a paltry 5.8 yards per pass attempt. That was good for 98th overall.

Meanwhile, the Buffs weren’t exactly stampeding over opponents on the ground. CU’s stable of thoroughbreds picked up 3.36 yards per rushing attempt in 2008, ranking 99th nationally.

What else? Colorado was below average on third down, converting 37.57 percent of attempts (75th nationally). That’s not horrible. No, horrible is finishing 108th overall in red zones conversion percentage, especially when you only made it inside the opponents’ 20-yard line an average of three times per game (97th overall).

Now that CU’s offensive (pun intended) suckage of ’08 has been well established, are there any reasons for Buff-heads to be optimistic about ‘09? Are those eight returning starters a blessing or a curse?

Running Back

Having lost playmaking receiver Josh Smith to the West Coast, expect Hawkins to rely even less on the deep ball. Instead, count on a heavy emphasis on the running game with some opportunistic play-pass calls mixed in this fall. That’s not a bad idea, given the talent in the CU backfield.

Assuming sophomore RB Darrell Scott doesn’t follow his uncle Smith out of town, he could form a potent 1-2 punch with backfield mate Rod “Hot Legs” Stewart. The top RB recruit in the class of 2008, Scott was nicked up all season and underwhelmed in his freshman year. Stewart stole some of Scott’s thunder early in the season. After Stewart suffered a season-ending broken leg in late October, Scott started to see more carries, but he still failed to make a dramatic impact on the CU offense.
 

"Ralphie, I wish I'd never seen your face..."

Stewart is a decent runner, but given his small stature, he seems best suited to playing the role of a change-of-pace back. Scott, on the other hand, has all the tools to be a star. If the light goes on this season for Scott, the Buffs’ offense should show appreciable improvement. From what we saw last year, that’s no sure thing.

Wide Receiver

The offseason loss of Smith, who averaged nearly 20 yards per catch as a freshman in ’07, makes what was an unimpressive receiving corps look downright depressing. Leading receiver Scotty McKnight returns for his junior season, having caught 46 balls for 519 yards and 5 yards. That’s a pretty good year (under Bill McCartney circa 1987).

Redshirt freshman Markques Simas looks to draw the starting nod across from McKnight. Having sat out last season as an academic casualty, Simas is an unknown quantity. However, the Buffs were expecting big things out of the touted recruit in his first year in Boulder, so there’s that.

Offensive Line

Defections and injuries plagued CU up front last season, which probably has a lot to do with the team’s inability to move the ball. By October, C Daniel Sanders was the only remaining starter with any prior experience. Essentially, the group spent most of ’08 learning on the fly.

Sanders is gone, but the Buffs return nine of the top 10 on the depth chart. They include sophomore Ryan Miller, a starter who was lost for the season after four games, and redshirt freshman Max Tuioti-Mariner, another starter who went down for the year in the second game of the season.

Sophomore Mike Iltis appears to be Sanders’ likely replacement at center. Miller should have one of the guard spots locked down. LT Nate Solder returns after showing significant improvement last season. The converted tight end started all 12 games and allowed just one sack all season.

Tuioti-Mariner will compete with sophomore Blake Behrens for the left guard spot. Bryce Givens looks like the frontrunner at right tackle.

Quarterback

They say there’s going to be a quarterback derby taking place in Boulder this fall. I’d buy that if one of the competitors didn’t have “Hawkins” printed on the back of his jersey. Tyler Hansen can talk all he wants about being raring to go, but it won’t make a difference. Yet, nepotism or not, Cody Hawkins is the right choice.

Hansen came in and gave the Buffs a short-term lift last year. He has an ability to make plays with his legs that Hawkins lacks. He’s a gritty competitor who makes things happen. He’s not a particularly good quarterback, though. During his freshman year, he was inaccurate and turnover-prone. He may win games, but not consistently.
 

Everyone loves the backup quarterback, until they find out he sucks

 
Hawkins won’t win any games on his own, but he certainly can operate his dad’s offense efficiently. He’ll hand the ball off, avoid interceptions, run the playaction passing game and hit the open man. With two strong tailbacks playing behind him, that gives CU its best chance for success in ’09.

Overview

There’s really nowhere to go but up for the Colorado offense in 2009. Let’s not sell this group short, though. The chaos on the offensive line last year put CU behind the eight ball all year. Now, all the youngsters who were pressed into early action have a year of competition under their belts. Expect plenty of improvement. Strong line play should help the Buffs’ ground-based attack churn out yards, enabling them to play keep away and move the chains. There won’t be many big plays in Boulder this year, but that doesn’t mean CU’s offense won’t be effective.

We start our in-depth look at the Big 12 landscape this year in the North where graduations affect some, not so much others and, when it comes down to it, scheduling could play the most important part.

The look from here says Nebraska’s combination of scheduling and defense should be enough to get them to the Big 12 championship game at Jerryworld in December. It won’t be easy, though, as Kansas may have something to say about it, as will question marks in the offense.

1. Nebraska

Bill Callahan nearly ran a once-proud program into the ground. At times, he seemed more concerned with throat-slashes, fans “throwing fruit,” and being a general all-around asshat than he did coaching the Big Red machine. Former Husker assistant Bo Pelini took over the helm last season, turning around a team that had gone 5-7 in 2007 (just their second losing season in 40 years – both of them under Callahan) and guided them to 10 wins and a Gator Bowl win.

Pelini will be replacing quarterback Joe Ganz, who threw for 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2008. Sophomore Zac Lee looks to be the one getting the nod, although he’s only thrown two career passes. He’ll have running back Roy Helu behind him, who despite starting just two games in 2008, led the team in rushing yards (803) and rushing touchdowns (7).

Fans hope Pelini, a defensive coach by trade, can bring back the Blackshirts. They’ll rally around 6’4″, 300-pound, senior defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who led the Husker defense in tackles (85), sacks (7.5), interceptions (2 … really, he led the team in picks??), QB hurries (7) and seconds on extra gravy boats at the Omaha Cracker Barrel.

Scheduling is where the Huskers get the biggest break. Yes, they have to play Oklahoma, but it’s in Lincoln. Yes, they have to go to Columbia and Lawrence, but the Tigers and Jayhawks have scheduling problems of their own. In the usual battle of attrition in the Big 12 North, Nebraska should be the team coming out on top and playing for the Big 12 Championship in December.

2. Kansas

The force is strong in Lawrence with pequeña signal-caller Todd Reesing returning for his senior season, and All-American candidate wideout Dezmon Briscoe (he’s still wide open down the sidelines, Venables … cover his ass) set to become the school’s all-time receptions leader before conference play even starts. In my mind, Mark Mangino is one of the best coaches in the country and will have the Rock Chalkers in contention for the North title. In fact, they’ll probably be favored to beat Nebraska in Lawrence on November 14. However, they do have to play Oklahoma (in Lawrence, thankfully) and make trips to Lubbock and Austin. That’s potentially three losses right there and dropping that many games in the North this year will have you sitting at home watching the Big 12 CCG.

3. Missouri

Although they’re the two-time reigning Big 12 North representative in the championship game, head coach Gary Pinkel will be retooling the offense after losing their biggest tool, Chase Daniel. All-world wideout and return specialist Jeremy Maclin will be drawing a paycheck from the Phildalphia Eagles in 2009, so Pinkel will have his cutesy, why-the-hell-are-you-calling-a-trick-play-NOW work cut out for him. Can 6’5″ quarterback Blaine Gabbert and 1,000-yard rusher Derrick Washington be enough on offense? In the Big 12 North, maybe. However, they open conference play with Nebraska, then go to Stillwater seven days later and come back home the next week to host Texas. Mizzou needs to win at least one of those three to have any shot at the Big 12 north title.

4. Colorado

Now we’re just drawing straws for the lower half of the North division. Colorado probably has enough talent to eek out the Kansas and Iowa ag schools, but unless they have a winning record and go bowling (doubtful and seriously doubt it), Dan Hawkins might be coaching intramurals this time next year. The Hawk may be platooning quarterbacks and running backs, and the defense loses six starters. The Buffs’ saving grace is that they get Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri all in Boulder. CU fans shudder at the thought of roadtrips to Austin and Stillwater, though.

5. Kansas State

Goodnight, sweet Prince. Hello again, Bill Snyder. The Wildcat fanbase doesn’t even acknowledge having a B.S. (before-Snyder) football program and, well, maybe they’re right. Snyder did accomplish one of the major turnarounds in college football history, taking the worst program in the history of the sport and making them conference title contenders. However, that was the Big 8. Snyder’s biggest win? A Big 12 conference title game shellacking over OU. The Wildcats must go to Norman on Halloween this year and unless he can raise the ghost of Darren Sproles, that one could get ugly. Other road trips to Lincoln and Lubbock mean … well, you get the picture.

6. Iowa State

A new year, a new Auburn DC running the ship in Ames. Surely Paul Rhoads can’t do worse than Gene Chizik’s two years there. I’ll put on my Harry Carey voice (just go with it) and ask: how does a guy who went 5-19 get the head coach position at Auburn? Austen Arnaud is a talented quarterback, but he might have to carry the load by himself. Unless you’re Vince Young (and he’s not), a one-man show is not going to win in Lawrence, Columbia and Lincoln. ISU also draws OSU and Baylor (in Ames) out of the South. The Bears’ Robert Griffin already went apeshit on the Cyclones once – he may just do it again.

Wednesday, ponderos. The men’s Big 12 tournament starts on Wednesday, NOT Thursday. They’re starting on Wednesday so the NCAA selection committee won’t have any excuses when they shaft one of the teams on Sunday since they will have chosen their teams already by the time the tournament is usually done.

Thank you, inside voice. Go back to whatever you were doing.

Yes, the 13th Big 12 men’s basketball tournament starts tomorrow at the Ford Center (home of yourrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr OKC Thunder!) in idyllic downtown Oklahoma City. While you’re there, head over to the track if you have a moment. Hitting a quinella at Remington Park is dominance defined.

Personal grooming habits have been an issue with the Thunder's new cheerleader.

As always, the first round games are of interest to fans of teams who couldn’t get the first round bye, and those teams who await them on Thursday (not Friday). The team probably most disappointed to be playing on humpday is Texas, which thought it would be able to rest on Wednesday after beating a Griffin-less OU. That was before laying eggs at Stillwater and Lawrence.

Some interesting facts from Big 12 tournament history:

• Only four teams have won the conference tourney: KU (6), OU (3 straight), OSU (2), and ISU (1).
• The conference’s regular season winner has won the post season tournament 7 times: Kansas (5), OSU (1), Iowa State (1).
• This is the second time the Ford Center has hosted the Big 12 tournament. The last time was 2007 when Kansas won an 88-84 thriller over Kevin Durant and four other Longhorns.
• Kansas is the winningest team in the Big 12 tournament at 25-6. OU is second at 19-9.

2009 Big 12 Tournament Bracket

Here’s a quick, just past the boxscores look at the first round games:

#8 Nebraska (18-11) vs. #9 Baylor (17-13). The Huskers don’t have a player over 6’5” who logs significant minutes, yet they were able to beat much bigger teams like Texas and Mizzou in Lincoln, plus a 20-point face-rape of K-State. Nebraska will play about eleventy-million quick, ankle-biting guards who will harass and bug the shit out of you. That might be enough against Baylor, which after looking like they might be this year’s NCAA Cinderella early in the year, turned into the proverbial pumpkin mid-season. After beating K-State and running their record to 15-3, the Bears went to Norman and got absolutely blasted by the Sooners, beginning a 10 of 12 losing streak. The last of those losses was to Nebraska, in Waco, when all Baylor had to do was hang onto the ball in the last two minutes of the game to win. The Bears need Curtis Jerrells and LaceDarius Dunn to light it up for them to have a chance to win. Nebraska should be able to use its speed and ballhawking (they average 8.4 steals per game) to advance to a Thursday matchup with Kansas.

Sure do like pumpkins, Cotton.

#5 Texas (20-10) vs. #12 Colorado (9-21). The Longhorns got a great draw, despite losing their first round bye. They get to play the worst team in the conference in the first round, then are bracketed with K-State should they win. It wasn’t quite that easy when the Horns played the Buffs last, though. Second team all-conference gift receiver Damion James clanked two free throws at the end of regulation that would have won the game. James made up for it in OT, though, single-handedly outscoring the Buffs to beat them in Boulder. A.J. Abrams was on that night, pouring in 29, but UT had no answer for CU wing Cory Higgins and his 34 points. I don’t know what Barnes is going to do to counter Higgins this time around, but it needs to be something different. Still, I’m thinking Texas will be fine here and should get through to play K-State on Thursday with its front line of Pittman, Johnson and James overpowering the young, small CU post players. Colorado has to hope that Higgins goes ballistic again and Texas starts playing WTF ball like they have at times this season.

#7 Oklahoma State (20-10) vs. #10 Iowa State (15-16). This will be a de-facto home game for the Pokes. Considering this is a school that includes barrel-racing championships as a “we own you” stat, you can pretty much guarantee that there will be copious amounts of deer season-orange littering the Ford. OSU is likely already in the NCAA tournament, but at least one win in the conference tournament would seal the deal. The Cowboys are on a good run right now, winning six out of their last seven. They began that run with a 19-point win over the Cyclones in Stillwater. ISU has a mirror-image streak, losers of 11 out of their last 14. Two players to watch are ISU’s Craig Brackins (20.1 ppg) and OSU’s James Anderson (18.9 ppg), the second and third leading scorers in the conference, respectively. OSU’s supporting cast is much better, though, with three other players scoring in double figures. That coupled with the intangible of OK State playing in front of a home crowd should push them past ISU and into a Thursday Bedlam rematch with Oklahoma.

#6 Texas A&M (23-8) vs. #11 Texas Tech (13-18). The Aggies might be the most underrated team in the conference. They’ve quietly rolled up 23 wins, including their last six straight. A&M has signature wins against Mizzou and Texas, both of those at Reed Arena in College Station. Their big weapon is 6’7” wing Josh Carter, who’s hitting 40% from the three point line. His size makes him a tough cover at the 3, but he sometimes has trouble creating his own shot. A&M swept the season series against Tech, although both were tight, including the Aggies’ 6-point, foul-plagued win in Lubbock. Tech has gone from the team nobody wanted to play in the NCAA not too many years ago to nearly the Big 12 doormat, losing 16 out of its last 19. Raiders’ fans would like to say they’ve seen improvement since East Central Oklahoma dropped 167 points on them back in November, but they really can’t (unless you count not having a buck and a half scored on you again as an improvement). A&M wins this one easy and advances to play Mizzou on Thursday.