Tilting at Windmills

As Kansas fans, we can do nothing but praise the big man right now.  He’s taken a program that was so far past irrelevant it had turned to laughable and he’s made them contenders.  In seven years, he’s compiled a 45-41 overall record…take out year one and it becomes 43-31 (.581 winning percentage).  In those years, they’ve been bowl eligible 5 times, having gone to four and won 3 of them.  One of those wins was the 2008 Orange Bowl, making Kansas one of four Big XII schools to have won a BCS game. 

You know you can't win the big one without me, Bob.

In doing all of that on the field, he’s also managed to completely change the mindset within the program and even on a national scale.  He’s got the donors and fans excited, the facilities have followed and nowhere is it more evident than on the recruiting trail.  He’s sculpted two stars into All-Americans and NFL draft picks.  He’s turned one prized quarterback into the Big XII DPOY as a linebacker and another into a possible All-League and/or NFL wide receiver.  The proof is in the pudding that if you have the talent and are willing to work, he’ll find a way to make you successful.  He’s never going to beat out Texas and OU for the top guys that they want, but he’s already making inroads with their second tier guys and for the time being, we have no reason to believe that won’t continue to progress.

Long story short, we couldn’t have asked for more up to this point.  But with that said, we still have steps that need to be taken. The first is playing in the league championship game.  Sure, we tied for the north division two years ago, but in my opinion – Missouri beat us; they’re the champions.  2007-08 was a truly fabulous year and in hindsight, it couldn’t have played out better for us.  But that’s still a step we need to take – in 2009.  To not win it this year with the talent we have and the respective talent of the other north teams would mean that we aren’t progressing. Secondly, we need to beat some of the big boys.  We’ve ended the embarrassing losing streaks and righted the ship against most, but we’ve yet to break through with Texas, OU and Tech.  2009 would be a good time to do so with the latter.   And lastly, we need to stay relevant.  As good as Mangino has been and as good as the recruiting seems to be going, we’ve yet to win significantly without Todd.  We don’t have to win the north every year, but we can’t ever regress back to the cellar. The last few years have been great, but now we need to sustain.  With Mangino in charge, I like our chances.

Oklahoma placed eight (8) players on the first team preseason All-Big 12 team, selected by the ubiuqitous “media reps who cover the conference.”

2008 Heisman-winner Sam Bradford was named Preseason Offensive Player of the Year. Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is the preseason pick for Defensive Player of the year and Baylor’s Phil Taylor, a defensive tackle transfer from Penn State who sat out 2008, is the media’s pick for Newcomer of the Year.

The Big 12 South put 22 of 26 players on the squad (including OSU’s Dez Bryant, who is listed at both wide receiver and punt returner). OU’s dominant defensive line was rewarded with two players on the first team, Gerald McCoy and Jeremy Beal.

Other Sooners on the first team are Jermaine Gresham, Trent Williams, Demarco Murray, Travis Lewis and Dominque Franks.

Here’s the full list:

OFFENSE
WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State, 6-2, 215, Jr, Lufkin, Texas
TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma, 6-6, 258, Sr, Ardmore, Okla.
OL Russell Okung, Oklahoma State, 6-6, 305, Sr, Fort Bend, Texas
OL Trent Williams, Oklahoma, 6-5, 318, Sr, Longview, Texas
C Chris Hall, Texas, 6-4, 295, Sr, Irving, Texas
OL Adam Ulatoski, Texas, 6-6, 310, Sr, Southlake, Texas
OL Brandon Carter, Texas Tech, 6-7, 354, Sr, Longview, Texas
WR Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas, 6-3, 202, Jr, Dallas, Texas
QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, 6-4, 223, Jr, Oklahoma City, Okla.
RB Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State, 5-8, 190, Jr, Tyler, Texas
RB DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma, 6-1, 214, Jr, Las Vegas, Nev.
PK Alex Henery, Nebraska, 6-2, 175, Jr, Omaha, Neb.
KR Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State, 6-0, 195, Sr, Waco, Texas

DEFENSE
DL Ndamukong Suh Nebraska 6-4 300 Sr/3L Portland, Ore.
DL Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma, 6-4, 297, Jr, Oklahoma City, Okla.
DL Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma, 6-3, 261, Jr, Carrollton, Texas
DL Sergio Kindle, Texas, 6-4, 255, Sr, Dallas, Texas
LB Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri, 6-2, 245, Sr, Jasper, Texas
LB Joe Pawelek, Baylor, 6-2, 240, Sr, San Antonio, Texas
LB Travis Lewis, Oklahoma, 6-2, 232, So, San Antonio, Texas
DB Darrell Stuckey, Kansas, 6-1, 205, Sr, Kansas City, Kan.
DB Jordan Lake, Baylor, 6-1, 215, Sr, Houston, Texas
DB Dominique Franks, Oklahoma, 6-0, 192, Jr, Tulsa, Okla.
DB Earl Thomas, Texas, 5-10, 197, So, Orange, Texas
P Derek Epperson, Baylor, 6-3, 235, Jr, Southlake, Texas
PR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State, 6-2, 215, Jr, Lufkin, Texas

Our Kansas blog friend Hiphopopotamus from Oread Boom Kings comes in swinging with a preview of the 2009 Kansas defense.

Much like the offense, our defense can be segregated into the three tiers of strength, solid and question mark.  Unlike the offense, we’re rather lacking in the star power.  I see it breaking down like this:

Strength: Safety

Solid: DT, DE, Corner

Question mark: LB

And really, calling safety a strength is due to one guy.  In reality, the secondary as a whole has proven no better than solid, but Stuckey his spot over the hump due to his game-changing ability.  The upside here is that despite having relatively little star power, nearly every spot on the defense should be dependable, have penty of depth and have the potential to take a big step forward.

Strength: Safety

Yes, Pass Interference was called on this play.

As mentioned, this is due to Darrell Stuckey.  There are few better against the run and as the year went on, he proved his worth from sideline to sideline in the secondary as well.  On occasion, he’s had a tendency to overrun a few plays, but more often than not, he’s stopping a play before it gets going.   He’s the unquestioned leader of the defense and I expect nothing less than Big XII first team.  Alongside him will be Philip Strozier, who doesn’t have near the game changing ability of Stuckey, but did show that he’s a guy that can play a little centerfield.  He did seem to look faster in the spring game, so hopefully that wasn’t just my April optimism.  Someone I’ll throw in with the safeties is Chris Harris as he looks to be entrenched at the nickel in our 4-2-5 scheme.  As someone that’s not especially fast, not willing to take many chances, but always in position and never missing a tackle, he’s got safety written all over him.  Unfortunately, the size wasn’t quite there.  Which is why he works well as a nickel and after an off-season of working here, I like this fit a lot.  I don’t ever see Strozier as a star; I’m hopeful Harris can be.

Solid: DT, DE, Corner

In keeping with the secondary, we’ll start with the corners.  As you saw at the end of last year, Patterson has shut down corner ability.  What he doesn’t have is size.  Love his instincts, love his turn and love his make up speed.  I still question trying to move him from O to D in a week of practice (Tech week no less), but if he makes a typical freshman to sophomore leap, we’re in for a treat.  Opposite Daymond is still up in the air.  Anthony Davis started the spring game, but I have to imagine that was simply because Thornton was working his way out of the doghouse.  The problem with both of them (and Greg brown) is that they just don’t have the speed to stay with guys.  They’re usually right there to make the tackle, but a step behind in hopes of preventing a completion.  I have to think JT is the opening game starter, but I’ll be curious to see what true freshman Prinz Kande has in store.  Long story short, we’ve got enough experience and depth here that it’s a known quantity, but unless the pass rush improves, it could end up looking like a weakness.

Speaking of, here’s to hoping all the hype about Quinton Woods comes to fruition.  The ex-Michigan recruit has apparently been turning some heads throughout the summer and, needless to say, we’ll need that to continue.  There are plenty of other needs on this defense, but a good pass rush is at the top of my list.  The best returning guy we have is Jake Laptad and his seven sacks from a year ago.  Laptad was the only guy to consistently generate pressure and against better tackles, he would pretty much disappear. Starting alongside him in the spring game was Max Onyegbule (who will interestingly be attending media day), he of unlimited potential.  Max looks the part and has had his moments, but until I can see him get in the backfield while still being in position against the run, I’ll remain skeptical.  We pretty much know what we’re getting in Laptad, but to truly compete this year, one of these other guys will have to step up. 

More, please.

Inside is probably our deepest position on the field, with the DTs being led by Richard Johnson, Jr.  Prior to his injury a year ago, RJJ was the class of the position for us and certainly has it in him to command and even beat a double team on occasion.  Alongside of him is a whole slew of guys that will see the field.  Blakesly is our greybeard and we know what we’re getting out of him.  While his dependability is admirable, what we really need is for Patrick Dorsey, Darius Parish and Jamaal Greene to make the leap.  All three have undeniable physical advantages over Blakesly and will be needed not only against the elite teams, but throughout the year as well.  Especially as we switch to a 4-2-5, we’ll need our line to be stout against their blocks and in the backfield as much as possible.  Linebacker is our biggest question mark on experience, and nothing would help out a new set of LBs like a d-line that occupies blockers.

Question mark: Linebacker

When you lose all three starters, it can’t be anything but a question mark.  And with us, it’s really an unknown with Arist Wright the only guy guaranteed to be in there.  With Arist, I like what we’re getting.  He’s not the brightest bulb in the box, but he’s a sure tackler and fast enough to drop into coverage.  As for the other spot…I’ve got no clue.  Even before tearing his knee up, Justin Springer was the heir apparent to Mortensen.  But as a weight room fanatic, he’s much more suited to play MLB in the ilk of JoMo.  And we all saw how that worked out a year ago.  So I’m in wait and see mode with him.  Behind him there’s Jake Schermer – a guy who will know his assignments up and down, but has certain physical limitations that are undeniable.  And then there’s Angus Quigley, who has no physical limitations, but has never played a down of defense before and may not have what it takes between the ears.  If he can grasp it, we may have stumbled upon something great.  If not, I’d at least expect to see him in a Brandon Perkins type role, edge rushing on 3rd downs.  Given what I know now, I have no reason to think this is a group that can come out and dominate games.  But I also have to think that there’s enough ability that if we can let them run free, they’re plenty capable of meeting a ball-carrier in the hole.  I’m not especially confident about their pass coverage either, but that’s why we’ll typically have 5 DBs out there with them.

We’re gonna score some points this year.  In fact, I’d guess we’re plenty capable of putting up 35 on just about everyone.  What I don’t know is how many of the big boys we can keep below 35.  I really do like what we’ve got in the secondary.  Unfortunately, there isn’t a secondary out there that can stop a spread on their own.  We absolutely have to generate a pass rush this year.  If we do, we’re going to damn good.  If we can’t, winning the north becomes not only our absolute ceiling, but a whole lot less likely as well.

TaW thanks Hiphopopotamus of the Kansas blog Oread Boom Kings for providing some preseason Jayhawk analysis.

As most units are prone, the KU offense can be segmented into three tiers of skill/reliability.  Ours are pretty evenly split and I see them breaking down as such:

Strength: QB, WR

Solid: RB, TE, C, RT

Question mark: LT, LG, RG

Clearly, the goal here is that your strengths are game-changers, the solid guys become strengths and the question marks pan out enough to be relied upon.  In most cases, all of those are within reach, with a few possible exceptions.

Strengths: QB & WR

 Texas & OU would probably argue – because they’re Texas and OU – but it seems obvious to most that our returning group is the best in the league and in the conversation nationally.  There’s no better quarterback for our system (with our personnel) than Todd Ressing.  He’s accurate. He’s competitive. He’s creative. And he’s a winner.  20-6 at a place like Kansas is no small feat and he’s looking to better that in the very near future.

I don't like thinking about life After Todd

As great as Todd is, part of what makes him great are his targets.  Dezmon Briscoe (92-1407-15), Kerry Meier (97-1045-8) and Jonathan Wilson (43-573-3) will be the unquestioned top three.  That is, of course, assuming that Dez Briscoe completes his academic requirements and remains eligible.  Wilson can be a thousand yard guy, but if he’s your #1, he’s not a game-changer.  As your number three, he can and will be a back-breaker.  And if you plan to play any zone coverage whatsoever, go ahead and pencil in double digit catches for Kerry Meier.  If Dez is eligible, our one concern at WR is injury…barring that, we’re going to move the ball through the air.

Solid: RB, TE, C, RT

While the aerial game is sure to be a success, our overall team success will likely depend on developing a balance on the ground.  Once conference play began, Jake Sharp became a nice option and one that can carry the load.  But unless we were playing K-State, he’s just not suited to run inside all game long and since this isn’t high school, we can’t just run sweeps all game either. If our line comes together, he’s a 20 carry, 5 per kind of guy.  If it doesn’t, we need to find someone (please let this play out) that can fall forward between the tackles.  Rell Lewis is another good option in the backfield, but having never seen him back there except in the spring game, I’m not quite ready to project what kind of runner he can be game to game.  Between the three of them, though, we’ll run the ball well if we can put together a cohesive line.

The other three are relative knowns as well,  all with potential to take a leap. At TE, Tim Biere isn’t going to be a star, but if he can become Derek Fine we’ll be overly thrilled.  He’s already a skilled blocker and looks to have a good set of hands when we don’t have to leave him in to help.  Now it’s just about fully integrating him and getting max benefit, because (out of necessity) we limited him far too much a year ago.  A rather large reason for having to limit him was due to the play of our offensive line.

Many are pointing to that as our downfall again in 2009 as we only return two starters and one of them is moving.  But a common mistake made is assuming that returning a starter is better than inserting new (and likely better) talent.  More on that later.  Our line “experience” returns in the form of two RS-sophmores in Jeff Spikes at RT and Jeremiah Hatch moving to his natural position of center.  Probably not yet this year, but I believe Hatch is All- League caliber in the middle of the line.  For how out of position he was last year and in having to learn the toughest position of the five on the go like that, I thought he did a fabulous job.  Put him where he belongs and give him an offseason to gel and I have little to no doubt that he’ll be rock steady all season.  At RT, I’m less certain but still excited by Jeff Spikes.   We never quite saw him get the hang of his footwork to handle speed rushers, but he did turn into a hell of a good run blocker.  Ideally, he’ll have improved on the former as well, but I need to see it.  What I can tell you is that the coaches think he’ll be better than Anthony Collins.  For us to have any chance against the big boys this year, both of these guys need to take a big step forward.

Question marks: LT, RG, & LG

Ever wonder how good he could be if he had some time?

Hatch and Spikes need to lead the way, but they can’t do it by themselves (here’s what I wrote about the entire line after the Spring Game).  And the help they’ll be getting hasn’t combined for much playing time at the collegiate level.  And if this concerns you, I can’t argue.  But as I said above, don’t dwell on what we lost, but rather on who will be out there this year.  The experience level is down, but the talent level is up.  Whether or not that’s a good thing from the get-go remains to be seen, but I can say with absolute certainty that I’d much rather take my chances with a now developed Sal Capra, Carl Wilson or John Williams than I would Chet Hartley or Adrian Mayes.  Both were good for us in 2007 and gave us everything they had a year ago, but both had rather limited ceilings.  And while I can’t sit here and guarantee better performance, I can tell you that the ceiling has been raised.  Now it’s just a matter of getting there.

Out at left tackle, we’ll turn to Tanner Hawkinson, the TE recruit that dabbled in DE and has now made the full-time move to the most important position on the line.  From the outside looking in, you’d be crazy not to question this one a bit.  Hell, there’s still a lot of worry from within for all I know.  Honestly, there are only two things comforting about this move.

1) Mangino’s trust: The big man very well could have returned both his tackles, but instead he saw enough in Hawkinson to take a gamble and move Hatch inside to center.  With another option on the table, it sounds crazy to put a guy with his lack of size and experience out there and yet he made the move full throttle. That tells me something.

2) Speed: It remains to be seen how he handles a bull rusher (and even run blocking at both the first and second level), but he really shouldn’t get beat by a speed guy off the edge.  He’s tall, has a great reach and he’s extremely quick back into his stance.  That’s not all you need, but it’s a good start.

This is hardly a ringing endorsement for our incumbent LT, but the potential and desire appears to be there.  I’m sure there’s a learning curve involved as well, but since it’s still July, confidence is high.

Long story short, the points are going to be there most of the time.  There’s just too much talent at the skill positions – specifically by the guy at the controls – to not put up some points.  The question that needs to be answered is about balance.  If we can establish a line and a dependable running game between the tackles, we’ll score on everyone, give our D some rest and become a real contender.  If we have to throw it 40-50 times a game, we become a 9 win team – max.  Obviously, we’re hoping for the former.

We start our in-depth look at the Big 12 landscape this year in the North where graduations affect some, not so much others and, when it comes down to it, scheduling could play the most important part.

The look from here says Nebraska’s combination of scheduling and defense should be enough to get them to the Big 12 championship game at Jerryworld in December. It won’t be easy, though, as Kansas may have something to say about it, as will question marks in the offense.

1. Nebraska

Bill Callahan nearly ran a once-proud program into the ground. At times, he seemed more concerned with throat-slashes, fans “throwing fruit,” and being a general all-around asshat than he did coaching the Big Red machine. Former Husker assistant Bo Pelini took over the helm last season, turning around a team that had gone 5-7 in 2007 (just their second losing season in 40 years – both of them under Callahan) and guided them to 10 wins and a Gator Bowl win.

Pelini will be replacing quarterback Joe Ganz, who threw for 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2008. Sophomore Zac Lee looks to be the one getting the nod, although he’s only thrown two career passes. He’ll have running back Roy Helu behind him, who despite starting just two games in 2008, led the team in rushing yards (803) and rushing touchdowns (7).

Fans hope Pelini, a defensive coach by trade, can bring back the Blackshirts. They’ll rally around 6’4″, 300-pound, senior defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who led the Husker defense in tackles (85), sacks (7.5), interceptions (2 … really, he led the team in picks??), QB hurries (7) and seconds on extra gravy boats at the Omaha Cracker Barrel.

Scheduling is where the Huskers get the biggest break. Yes, they have to play Oklahoma, but it’s in Lincoln. Yes, they have to go to Columbia and Lawrence, but the Tigers and Jayhawks have scheduling problems of their own. In the usual battle of attrition in the Big 12 North, Nebraska should be the team coming out on top and playing for the Big 12 Championship in December.

2. Kansas

The force is strong in Lawrence with pequeña signal-caller Todd Reesing returning for his senior season, and All-American candidate wideout Dezmon Briscoe (he’s still wide open down the sidelines, Venables … cover his ass) set to become the school’s all-time receptions leader before conference play even starts. In my mind, Mark Mangino is one of the best coaches in the country and will have the Rock Chalkers in contention for the North title. In fact, they’ll probably be favored to beat Nebraska in Lawrence on November 14. However, they do have to play Oklahoma (in Lawrence, thankfully) and make trips to Lubbock and Austin. That’s potentially three losses right there and dropping that many games in the North this year will have you sitting at home watching the Big 12 CCG.

3. Missouri

Although they’re the two-time reigning Big 12 North representative in the championship game, head coach Gary Pinkel will be retooling the offense after losing their biggest tool, Chase Daniel. All-world wideout and return specialist Jeremy Maclin will be drawing a paycheck from the Phildalphia Eagles in 2009, so Pinkel will have his cutesy, why-the-hell-are-you-calling-a-trick-play-NOW work cut out for him. Can 6’5″ quarterback Blaine Gabbert and 1,000-yard rusher Derrick Washington be enough on offense? In the Big 12 North, maybe. However, they open conference play with Nebraska, then go to Stillwater seven days later and come back home the next week to host Texas. Mizzou needs to win at least one of those three to have any shot at the Big 12 north title.

4. Colorado

Now we’re just drawing straws for the lower half of the North division. Colorado probably has enough talent to eek out the Kansas and Iowa ag schools, but unless they have a winning record and go bowling (doubtful and seriously doubt it), Dan Hawkins might be coaching intramurals this time next year. The Hawk may be platooning quarterbacks and running backs, and the defense loses six starters. The Buffs’ saving grace is that they get Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri all in Boulder. CU fans shudder at the thought of roadtrips to Austin and Stillwater, though.

5. Kansas State

Goodnight, sweet Prince. Hello again, Bill Snyder. The Wildcat fanbase doesn’t even acknowledge having a B.S. (before-Snyder) football program and, well, maybe they’re right. Snyder did accomplish one of the major turnarounds in college football history, taking the worst program in the history of the sport and making them conference title contenders. However, that was the Big 8. Snyder’s biggest win? A Big 12 conference title game shellacking over OU. The Wildcats must go to Norman on Halloween this year and unless he can raise the ghost of Darren Sproles, that one could get ugly. Other road trips to Lincoln and Lubbock mean … well, you get the picture.

6. Iowa State

A new year, a new Auburn DC running the ship in Ames. Surely Paul Rhoads can’t do worse than Gene Chizik’s two years there. I’ll put on my Harry Carey voice (just go with it) and ask: how does a guy who went 5-19 get the head coach position at Auburn? Austen Arnaud is a talented quarterback, but he might have to carry the load by himself. Unless you’re Vince Young (and he’s not), a one-man show is not going to win in Lawrence, Columbia and Lincoln. ISU also draws OSU and Baylor (in Ames) out of the South. The Bears’ Robert Griffin already went apeshit on the Cyclones once – he may just do it again.

A new year, a new set of challenges across the Big 12 landscape.

Who will be the preseason glamour boy who falters early, causing us to question why we ever put him on that pedestal in the first place (whither Chase Daniel)? Who is Mike Leach going to have throw the ball eleventy-million times a game, making us go “gosh, where’d he find THIS guy?” Who’s going to feel like they got “screwed” at the end of the season, paying no attention to their own foibles that got them in their mess to begin with?

Picking another winner, I see.

Ladies and gentlemen, and TaW readers, without further adieu, we present to you … the 2009 Big 12.

As we alluded to over the weekend, this begins a six-week series breaking down each team’s chances this fall. Obviously, some (OU, Texas, Nebraska) will have better chances than others (Iowa State, Colorado, Aggy). We’ll start breaking down the Big 12 North later this week, but for now, let’s take a look at who we think has the best shot at surviving the standing 8 at the end of the year.

It'll be hard to go unscathed this year, yo.

Big 12 champion

If you think you’re going to get anybody but Oklahoma in this slot on an OU blog, you’re delusional. You also haven’t paid attention to OU’s six Big 12 titles (seven appearances in the Big 12 CCG) in the past nine years. The Sooners’ main weapon in winning the last three straight titles is the fact that nobody can touch them in Norman, meaning you can pretty much chalk up four conference wins right there (Baylor, Kansas State, A&M, OSU). Stoops is an astonishing 60-2 at Owen Field and the Sooners have the nation’s longest home winning streak at 24 straight. That’s not to say OU doesn’t have any potential minefields, though. They’ll have one of the toughest schedules in the country, which includes a trip to Miami (I don’t care what their record says, Miami at Miami speaks for itself), a game in Lubbock where OU has lost two straight and … oh yeah: October 17 in Dallas.

The Sooners are looking for a four-peat in 2009.

Big 12 runner-up

The North sacrificial lamb representative has usually been a process of elimination with the past couple of years, Missouri showing up by virtue of having actual talent on the field (sorry, Kansas). This year, it’s Nebraska. Although Bo Pelini’s v2.1 Cornhusker squad will be replacing quarterback Joe Ganz (presumably his brother Cherry won’t come looking for him) and running back Marlon Lucky, we think quarterback Zac Lee (what we’ve seen of him) can at least manage to turn around and hand the ball to RB Roy Helu, who ran for 803 yards last year. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (whose name in the Cameroon Ngema tribe means “House of Spears” – no, we’re not making that up) is being compared to a jumbo-sized Rich Glover.

Bowl teams

This is where the Big 12 should make a good showing with as many as 8 teams playing postseason games.

BCS teams

No surprise here. OU and Texas are both good enough and both team’s schedules line up (although for opposite reasons) well enough to get them both into marquee bowls. Who goes to the Rose Bowl playing for all the marbles and who is in the Fiesta against a Big 10 patsy will be determined in October.

Cotton Bowl

Nebraska gets a break on the Big 12 South rotation (they get Oklahoma and Tech at home, then have to play Baylor in Waco) and should look good enough come December that even a loss in the Big 12 CCG should send them back to Dallas for this one.

Holiday Bowl

Look for the winner of the November 14 game in Stillwater to get an invitation to San Diego. The outlook from here says it will be OSU over Texas Tech, which should dovetail into the …

Alamo Bowl

Although technically the Gator Bowl could take a Big 12 team before the guys in San Antonio get a chance, you know the San Antonio city officials would just love to have the Sand Aggies at the Alamodome and their fans stumbling around the Riverwalk for a weekend.

Gator Bowl

Should the Alamo pick first, that means we’re likely to see somebody like Kansas in Jacksonville. The Jayhawks have a BCS win on their resume and would be a very attractive pick. However, if they’re able to ambush Nebraska in Lawrence on November 14, all bets are off here.

Sun Bowl

Their fans might be disappointed after going to the Big 12 championship the past two years, but at least Missouri wouldn’t have to deal with an Oklahoma woodshedding in El Paso. Mizzou faces big tests on the road at Stillwater (yeah, I said it) and neutral site games with Kansas and Illinois. They get Texas and Nebraska in Columbia, which should at least give them better odds in those games.

Insight, Independence or Texas Bowl

This is where the WAGging starts. You know what? Screw it. Baylor’s going bowling, folks. Put em in the Texas or Independence Bowl and they’ll travel, too. If the Baptists (and Robert Griffin, they probably don’t even care if worships the devil at this point) are playing past November, they won’t mind where.

Here we are, folks. The heat is bearing down, we’re relegated to watching Tour de France and tennis (I’m sure some of you are actually baseball fans) and we’re pat-pat-patting our feet in anticipation of late August and early September.

Well, it’s closer than we think. Students will be returning to campus in about a month, meaning fall practices will be starting around the same time. We at TaW are itching to get going now, though.

So, to cure your football fix through the heat and anticipation in July, we’re going to bring you a six-week series previewing the fortunes of all 12 conference teams and their coaches.

We’ll start this week with Nebraska and culminate in August with your Oklahoma Sooners. Here’s a preview of what to expect:

Week of July 6

Nebraska

In his first full season at the helm of the Cornhuskers, Bo Pelini improved a 5-7 team in 2007 to 9-4 in 2008. ponderos will look at what the defensive-minded Pelini can do to capitalize on the Huskers’ big bowl win over Clemson and what the Big Red will look like with junior Zac Lee taking over from the prolific Joe Ganz under center.

Just sayin ...

Week of July 13

Missouri

How will Mizzou look in the post-Chase Daniel era? We’ll find out a lot about Gary Pinkel’s coaching ability as he cobbles together an offense without the talents of Daniel and all-everything receiver Jeremy Maclin.

Iowa State

The Cyclones are hoping that another ex-Auburn defensive coordinator, Paul Rhoads, can turn around the fortunes from the mess left behind by Gene Chizik. ISU is paying Rhoads a reported $5.75 million over 5 years, so at least the financial commitment is there. ponderos will examine ISU’s upcoming 2009 season, which will ride and fall on the shoulders of second-year starter, dual-threat quarterback Austen Arnaud.

Week of July 20

Colorado

Is Dan Hawkins on the hot seat? He’s 8-17 in his three years in Boulder and has yet to have a winning season. TaW’s Blatant Homer will talk about whether Hawkins can put enough wins together in 2009 to save his job.

Kansas

Mark Mangino might be the most underrated coach in the country. He’s 3-1 in bowl games since taking over in 2002, including a big BCS win in the 2007 FedEx Orange Bowl. Oread Boom Kings’ Hiphopopotamus will give a Kansas fan’s perspective of the 2009 season, which will no doubt include a look at quarterback Todd Reesing, who might just be the best signal-caller in the Big 12 north this year.

Week of July 27

Kansas State

“Sleepless in Manhattan” returns to the Purple Power this year as Bill Snyder tries to turn around a program that unceremoniously dumped Ron Prince under dubious circumstances. TaW’s Coach Bo has a, ahem … special affinity for the Wildcats and will bring a unique perspective to the KSU 2009 preview. Don’t forget your Power Towel!

Baylor

TaW’s Big 12 South coverage will begin in Waco where the preseason excitement hasn’t been this high in over 20 years when Grant Teaff was at the helm. Sophomore quarterback Robert Griffin is for real and is already giving coaches around the Big 12 gameplanning fits (H/T, Mike Sherman). TaW’s Blatant Homer will preview the Bears’ 2009 chances under second-year head coach Art Briles, who already has an A&M pelt on his wall and scared the bejeezus out of Tech and Missouri last season.

Week of August 3

Texas Tech

It bears repeating: Tech beat Texas last year. The single-biggest win in corsair Mike Leach’s career caused the entire Longhorn nation to collectively and permanantly lodge their panties in their cracks. The Tortilla Retort’s dedfischer will look at the monumental task Leach has in front of him this year after losing quarterback Graham Harrell and All-American wideout Michael Crabtree.

Oklahoma State

How many years will OSU be a program on the rise? Mike “I’m a man!” Gundy had his Cowboys in the Top 10 at one time last year and many feel they should be there in the preseason, mainly due to dual-threat quarterback Zac Robinson. TaW’s duncansooner takes one for the team to research and document the Pokes’ 2009 season. No word on if he’ll offend any mothers … of children.

Week of August 10

Texas A&M

Second-year head coach Mike Sherman (4-8 in his first year at College Station) would be on one of the hottest seats in the country were it not for other problems in College Station. TaW will look at whether the Sherminator can solve the myriad of problems facing the Aggies in 2009, which include doing something about a 3-10 record to the Lubbock Sand Aggies since the inception of the Big 12, and what looks to be an ugly trip to Norman.



Don't you wish you had him back, Aggies?

Texas

BCS-gate, Asterisk-gate and another year without a conference title. Sounds like nothing much has changed for Mack Brown and the Horns. They’re pinning their hopes on a 2-1 record in the last 3 games against Oklahoma, though. TaW will look at UT’s fortunes with third-place Heisman finisher Colt McCoy returning for his senior season and Sergio Kindle trying desperately to stay on the team, barring his turning any more west campus housing into a Junior’s Party Barn drive-thru.



Add that to the trophy case, Mack.

Week of August 17

Oklahoma

Is this the year Stoops finally gets over the BCS hump? Some publications are putting OU’s defense as tops in the country. Indeed, the Sooners’ defensive line could rival the Harris-Dvoracek front from the early 2000s. Heisman winner Sam Bradford will have to prove his worth after losing four of five of his guys up front, but he still has dangerous weapons like two 1,000-yard rushers in DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown, plus the freakishly-talented Jermaine Gresham.

A Clipper!

While it’s great to have a Sooner going #1 – big time stuff – the fact that it is the CLIPPERS makes it kind of like winning a free cruise on the Titanic.

Some advice for Blake:

Start scoping out a spot on the life boat ASAP.

This is just too freaking cool. The guys at Atomic Teeth have put together an interactive spreadsheet that allows you to plug in the various scenarios to predict Big 12 tournament seeding.

Here are some of the scenarios I ran:

• Obviously if OU wins out, they’re the #1 seed. It’s very possible that could happen, although games at Austin, Kansas in Norman two days later, and at Columbia are still looming. The Sooners can go 1-2 and still get the #1 seed, as long as those two losses are on the road and they hold serve at home. Basically, OU cannot lose to Kansas and get the #1 seed without help (Kansas losing again to, say, Missouri).
• Likewise, if Kansas wins out, they get the #1 seed, putting OU on the Missouri side of the bracket. Kansas plays four out of its last five at home, the one exception of course is their game in Norman. I think KU will handle UT at the Phog, so the Hawks basically have a two-game season: Mizzou and OU.
• Here’s where things get a little interesting. Mizzou can get the #1 seed if OU loses to both them and Kansas. In that scenario, the Sooners would fall to the #3 seed and likely meet Kansas on Saturday. Just like OU and Kansas, if Mizzou wins out, they’re the #1 seed.
• Barring a major collapse, UT will end up as the 4 seed, on the same side of the bracket as Oklahoma. Texas has two steep hills to climb with OU in Austin this weekend, then having to go to Lawrence on March 7. They can drop those two games, win out and still be 11-5 10-6 in the conference, which would put them solidly in the 4 slot. Now, say something completely bizarre happens like a Russian sattelite meteor hits Austin and the Longhorns run the table. That would put them on the opposite side of the bracket as OU (provided OU beat everybody except Texas, and Missouri won at Lawrence). However, if UT wins out and OU loses just once (to UT), UT’s still the 4 seed if Kansas beats Mizzou, meaning they’ll have to deal with Blake Griffin on Saturday.
• I didn’t run any scenarios for OSU because, frankly, I didn’t care. Knock yourselves out.