Tilting at Windmills

We start our in-depth look at the Big 12 landscape this year in the North where graduations affect some, not so much others and, when it comes down to it, scheduling could play the most important part.

The look from here says Nebraska’s combination of scheduling and defense should be enough to get them to the Big 12 championship game at Jerryworld in December. It won’t be easy, though, as Kansas may have something to say about it, as will question marks in the offense.

1. Nebraska

Bill Callahan nearly ran a once-proud program into the ground. At times, he seemed more concerned with throat-slashes, fans “throwing fruit,” and being a general all-around asshat than he did coaching the Big Red machine. Former Husker assistant Bo Pelini took over the helm last season, turning around a team that had gone 5-7 in 2007 (just their second losing season in 40 years – both of them under Callahan) and guided them to 10 wins and a Gator Bowl win.

Pelini will be replacing quarterback Joe Ganz, who threw for 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2008. Sophomore Zac Lee looks to be the one getting the nod, although he’s only thrown two career passes. He’ll have running back Roy Helu behind him, who despite starting just two games in 2008, led the team in rushing yards (803) and rushing touchdowns (7).

Fans hope Pelini, a defensive coach by trade, can bring back the Blackshirts. They’ll rally around 6’4″, 300-pound, senior defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who led the Husker defense in tackles (85), sacks (7.5), interceptions (2 … really, he led the team in picks??), QB hurries (7) and seconds on extra gravy boats at the Omaha Cracker Barrel.

Scheduling is where the Huskers get the biggest break. Yes, they have to play Oklahoma, but it’s in Lincoln. Yes, they have to go to Columbia and Lawrence, but the Tigers and Jayhawks have scheduling problems of their own. In the usual battle of attrition in the Big 12 North, Nebraska should be the team coming out on top and playing for the Big 12 Championship in December.

2. Kansas

The force is strong in Lawrence with pequeña signal-caller Todd Reesing returning for his senior season, and All-American candidate wideout Dezmon Briscoe (he’s still wide open down the sidelines, Venables … cover his ass) set to become the school’s all-time receptions leader before conference play even starts. In my mind, Mark Mangino is one of the best coaches in the country and will have the Rock Chalkers in contention for the North title. In fact, they’ll probably be favored to beat Nebraska in Lawrence on November 14. However, they do have to play Oklahoma (in Lawrence, thankfully) and make trips to Lubbock and Austin. That’s potentially three losses right there and dropping that many games in the North this year will have you sitting at home watching the Big 12 CCG.

3. Missouri

Although they’re the two-time reigning Big 12 North representative in the championship game, head coach Gary Pinkel will be retooling the offense after losing their biggest tool, Chase Daniel. All-world wideout and return specialist Jeremy Maclin will be drawing a paycheck from the Phildalphia Eagles in 2009, so Pinkel will have his cutesy, why-the-hell-are-you-calling-a-trick-play-NOW work cut out for him. Can 6’5″ quarterback Blaine Gabbert and 1,000-yard rusher Derrick Washington be enough on offense? In the Big 12 North, maybe. However, they open conference play with Nebraska, then go to Stillwater seven days later and come back home the next week to host Texas. Mizzou needs to win at least one of those three to have any shot at the Big 12 north title.

4. Colorado

Now we’re just drawing straws for the lower half of the North division. Colorado probably has enough talent to eek out the Kansas and Iowa ag schools, but unless they have a winning record and go bowling (doubtful and seriously doubt it), Dan Hawkins might be coaching intramurals this time next year. The Hawk may be platooning quarterbacks and running backs, and the defense loses six starters. The Buffs’ saving grace is that they get Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri all in Boulder. CU fans shudder at the thought of roadtrips to Austin and Stillwater, though.

5. Kansas State

Goodnight, sweet Prince. Hello again, Bill Snyder. The Wildcat fanbase doesn’t even acknowledge having a B.S. (before-Snyder) football program and, well, maybe they’re right. Snyder did accomplish one of the major turnarounds in college football history, taking the worst program in the history of the sport and making them conference title contenders. However, that was the Big 8. Snyder’s biggest win? A Big 12 conference title game shellacking over OU. The Wildcats must go to Norman on Halloween this year and unless he can raise the ghost of Darren Sproles, that one could get ugly. Other road trips to Lincoln and Lubbock mean … well, you get the picture.

6. Iowa State

A new year, a new Auburn DC running the ship in Ames. Surely Paul Rhoads can’t do worse than Gene Chizik’s two years there. I’ll put on my Harry Carey voice (just go with it) and ask: how does a guy who went 5-19 get the head coach position at Auburn? Austen Arnaud is a talented quarterback, but he might have to carry the load by himself. Unless you’re Vince Young (and he’s not), a one-man show is not going to win in Lawrence, Columbia and Lincoln. ISU also draws OSU and Baylor (in Ames) out of the South. The Bears’ Robert Griffin already went apeshit on the Cyclones once – he may just do it again.

A new year, a new set of challenges across the Big 12 landscape.

Who will be the preseason glamour boy who falters early, causing us to question why we ever put him on that pedestal in the first place (whither Chase Daniel)? Who is Mike Leach going to have throw the ball eleventy-million times a game, making us go “gosh, where’d he find THIS guy?” Who’s going to feel like they got “screwed” at the end of the season, paying no attention to their own foibles that got them in their mess to begin with?

Picking another winner, I see.

Ladies and gentlemen, and TaW readers, without further adieu, we present to you … the 2009 Big 12.

As we alluded to over the weekend, this begins a six-week series breaking down each team’s chances this fall. Obviously, some (OU, Texas, Nebraska) will have better chances than others (Iowa State, Colorado, Aggy). We’ll start breaking down the Big 12 North later this week, but for now, let’s take a look at who we think has the best shot at surviving the standing 8 at the end of the year.

It'll be hard to go unscathed this year, yo.

Big 12 champion

If you think you’re going to get anybody but Oklahoma in this slot on an OU blog, you’re delusional. You also haven’t paid attention to OU’s six Big 12 titles (seven appearances in the Big 12 CCG) in the past nine years. The Sooners’ main weapon in winning the last three straight titles is the fact that nobody can touch them in Norman, meaning you can pretty much chalk up four conference wins right there (Baylor, Kansas State, A&M, OSU). Stoops is an astonishing 60-2 at Owen Field and the Sooners have the nation’s longest home winning streak at 24 straight. That’s not to say OU doesn’t have any potential minefields, though. They’ll have one of the toughest schedules in the country, which includes a trip to Miami (I don’t care what their record says, Miami at Miami speaks for itself), a game in Lubbock where OU has lost two straight and … oh yeah: October 17 in Dallas.

The Sooners are looking for a four-peat in 2009.

Big 12 runner-up

The North sacrificial lamb representative has usually been a process of elimination with the past couple of years, Missouri showing up by virtue of having actual talent on the field (sorry, Kansas). This year, it’s Nebraska. Although Bo Pelini’s v2.1 Cornhusker squad will be replacing quarterback Joe Ganz (presumably his brother Cherry won’t come looking for him) and running back Marlon Lucky, we think quarterback Zac Lee (what we’ve seen of him) can at least manage to turn around and hand the ball to RB Roy Helu, who ran for 803 yards last year. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (whose name in the Cameroon Ngema tribe means “House of Spears” – no, we’re not making that up) is being compared to a jumbo-sized Rich Glover.

Bowl teams

This is where the Big 12 should make a good showing with as many as 8 teams playing postseason games.

BCS teams

No surprise here. OU and Texas are both good enough and both team’s schedules line up (although for opposite reasons) well enough to get them both into marquee bowls. Who goes to the Rose Bowl playing for all the marbles and who is in the Fiesta against a Big 10 patsy will be determined in October.

Cotton Bowl

Nebraska gets a break on the Big 12 South rotation (they get Oklahoma and Tech at home, then have to play Baylor in Waco) and should look good enough come December that even a loss in the Big 12 CCG should send them back to Dallas for this one.

Holiday Bowl

Look for the winner of the November 14 game in Stillwater to get an invitation to San Diego. The outlook from here says it will be OSU over Texas Tech, which should dovetail into the …

Alamo Bowl

Although technically the Gator Bowl could take a Big 12 team before the guys in San Antonio get a chance, you know the San Antonio city officials would just love to have the Sand Aggies at the Alamodome and their fans stumbling around the Riverwalk for a weekend.

Gator Bowl

Should the Alamo pick first, that means we’re likely to see somebody like Kansas in Jacksonville. The Jayhawks have a BCS win on their resume and would be a very attractive pick. However, if they’re able to ambush Nebraska in Lawrence on November 14, all bets are off here.

Sun Bowl

Their fans might be disappointed after going to the Big 12 championship the past two years, but at least Missouri wouldn’t have to deal with an Oklahoma woodshedding in El Paso. Mizzou faces big tests on the road at Stillwater (yeah, I said it) and neutral site games with Kansas and Illinois. They get Texas and Nebraska in Columbia, which should at least give them better odds in those games.

Insight, Independence or Texas Bowl

This is where the WAGging starts. You know what? Screw it. Baylor’s going bowling, folks. Put em in the Texas or Independence Bowl and they’ll travel, too. If the Baptists (and Robert Griffin, they probably don’t even care if worships the devil at this point) are playing past November, they won’t mind where.

You know bias when you see it.

Being an unabashed, biased OU homer, I’m qualified to point out fellow spades. There are times when it’s OK to be a homer … you’re getting paid by a university/team/organization and you naturally want to cater to your meal ticket; your make your living elsewhere, but your livelihood depends on you being a unbelievably ignorant, obnoxious homer (holla James Hale, Robert Allen and Geoff Ketchum); your best friend’s girlfriend wants to know where your bud has been spending his weekday nights, and you feign ignorance with the daintiest “bros before hos” tap-dancing you can, careful not to offend so much that she decides not to hook you up with her twin, augmented, morally-loose friends who “do everything together” and say they like short, pasty white guys that like to air-guitar when they drive.

Here are two fresh examples of biases that this Dude just could not abide:

1. Mack Brown is apparently claiming another Big 12 title he did not earn. Added to the collection of co-Big 12 South championship rings is now a claim to a share of the 2008 Big 12 championship. The irreverent Red Dirt Kings dug up these tasty nugs from a UT recruiting video (thanks for letting me post swipe them, fellas):

I pretty much know I’m right about OU actually winning the conference championship, but just to make sure, I guess I better go rewatch a.) the Big 12 championship game where OU cockpunched Mizzou, and; b.) the last 2 minutes of the UT-Tech game.

But we’ll let this one go, I guess, because it’s laughable and because it’s OK to be biased towards Texas if you’re Mack Brown. That’s his job.

2. Two college basketball gurus over at Rivals think there are two coaches in the country right now doing a better job than our Jeff Capel. Fine, those guys get paid to write shit and call it an opinion, who am I to stomp on their livelihood. However, the one that caught my eye was Jason King’s dubbing Bill Self as coach of the year.

Still, somehow, Kansas is 20-5 overall and 9-1 in the Big 12, where it trails undefeated Oklahoma by 1.5 games in the standings. If the Jayhawks take care of business as expected and defeat Iowa State and Nebraska at home this week, they’ll play the Sooners on Feb. 23 in a game that could determine the league’s regular-season championship.

Win or lose against Oklahoma, Self’s efforts this season will be remembered as nothing short of masterful.

Ok, now this is just asinine (and before the Texas fans want to bring up Thayer Evans, save it – you made your points, too). Nevermind that Kansas lost to a 9-14 (they were a blistering 2-6 at the time) UMass team in Kansas City. How about losing to an Arizona team that’s in the middle of the Yak-10 and had just lost to A&M a couple of weeks earlier. Losing at Michigan State? Ok, the Spartans are pretty good, you can have that one. Losing to Mizzou on the road? Another good team, but you need to beat your rivals to go anywhere in this league.

What really galled me was the obvious bias. It’s commendable that King wrote Kansas Jayhawks – A Year to Remember. I even like his cutesy autograph gif he puts on the site, that’s a keeper. But don’t give me Bill freaking Self over Jeff Capel when …

Jason King has been considered the leading source for Kansas athletics since he began covering the Jayhawks in 2000. King spent seven years as the KU beat reporter for The Kansas City Star before becoming a national college basketball and football writer for Yahoo! Sports.

This kid and whRon Franklin should sit down and have a glass of warm milk together some day and slap-fight the homer out of each other.