Tilting at Windmills

Since his days manning the dusty sidelines of Texas high schools, Baylor coach Art Briles has garnered a reputation as a reclamation specialist. So much so, in fact, that he’s inspiring magazine features about the job he’s doing in Waco. Even Briles is talking about the Bears developing into a national title contender in the near future.

Are we talking about the same school that went 4-8 last year?

Let’s get real. Just turning Baylor into a consistent bowl team would be an achievement along the lines of what Bill Snyder accomplished in his first run at Kansas State. From a competitive standpoint, the Bears are a Conference USA-level program playing in arguably the toughest division in college football, the Big 12 South. Expecting Baylor to climb the Big 12 ladder to the point where they’re able to challenge Texas and Oklahoma annually for conference supremacy is a pipe dream of the highest order. However, with that in mind, there’s still no reason to think the Bears can’t at least rise above tomato can status.

That means Baylor will need to start winning some of the toss-up games that it has shown a tendency to drop. I’d only count two games this season as completely unwinnable–OU and Texas. Two non-conference games, hosting Northwestern State and Kent State, look like sure victories. Finding four of five more wins among the other eight games seems reasonable.

I expect the Bears to get up off the mat in 2009 and break their 15-year bowl drought.

Projected Overall Record: 7-5
Projected Big 12 Record: 3-5

Baylor’s defense was about as effective in slowing down Big 12 offenses last season as bringing a well-made abstinence video to an orgy.

The Bears did a pretty good job stopping the run, finishing 31st in the country in yards per cary at 3.57. The problem was that it didn’t really help in a year when the league committed itself to chucking it all over the lot. The Bears gave up 7.2 yards per pass attempt (78th in the country) and had an efficiency rating 137.21 (91st). In 12 games, the Bears gave up 22 passing touchdowns, one of the worst rates in the country.

The porous pass D helped drag Baylor down to 87th overall in scoring defense at 29.3 points per game and 95th in total defense, giving up 408.2 yards per game.

Defensive Line

On the defensive side of the ball, the story this offseason in Waco was big DT Phil Taylor. Taylor’s “creative differences” with JoePa led him to leave Happy Valley after starting five games two years ago. The Nittany Lions’ loss has turned into Baylor’s gain, though, as the 6-4, 355-pound run stuffer opted to follow another Penn State turncoat, Baylor defensive coordinator Brian Norwood, south. With his size and PSU pedigree, Taylor clearly isn’t some geek off the street. He’s a huge upgrade over the departed Vincent Rhodes.

Taylor will play one tackle spot in the Bears’ 4-3 alignment, and he’ll be joined by senior Trey Bryant. Senior Jason Lamb and sophomore Zac Scotton look to draw the starting nods on the edge.

I wish for Baylor fans’ sakes that there was more to say about this group, but it’s a pretty lackluster bunch. In particular, they’ve shown little ability to disrupt opponents’ passing games. Essentially, it’s on Taylor to inject some life into this uninspiring unit.

Linebackers

After transitioning from the 4-2-5, this threesome is the stable strength of the Bears’ D. It starts in the middle with senior Joe Pawelek, who earned first-team All-Big 12 honors in 2008. The rangy senior is a coach’s dream, a lightly recruited grinder who turned himself into a player through guts and hard work. Norwood counts on Pawelek to call the defenses and get his teammates lined up correctly in addition to being the team’s leading tackler.

Senior Antonio Jones returns on the strong side. Jones started 12 games last season, recording 71 tackles and 5.5 tackles for loss. On the far side is Antonio Johnson. (How are you supposed to keep those two straight?) Also, count on junior Earl Patin, the most celebrated recruit of the Bears’ linebackers, to see plenty of action this year after he rang up 52 tackles last season.

Defensive Backs

The Baylor secondary is also led by an all-conference performer, senior FS Jordan Lake. Lake earned a first-team nod last season. He finished ’08 as the Bears’ second-leading tackler with 97 stops on the season. Strangely, that was actually a significant dip from the previous season’s mark of 120, which led the team. (Of course, the fact that a safety wasn’t Baylor’s leading tackler is probably a good thing.)

Two other returning starters are back this year. Senior strong safety Jeremy Williams has done little in his time in Waco to make much of a name for himself, although I guess there’s always time. Junior Antareis Bryan will start at one of the corner positions, having broken up nine passes over three starts last year.
Overview

If you’re looking for a sign of the times in the Big 12, consider that the Bears have two surefire all-conference performers on defense. Adding Taylor to the mix gives coach Art Briles a cornerstone on all three lines.

Another reason for optimism is the fact that Baylor’s players are in the second year of the team’s new defensive scheme. That’s a big deal for a group that brings back eight starters.

So, what would make for a good year for this bunch? Well, the Bears gave up 5.3 yards per play in ’08, which was just a tenth of a yard more than the conference’s best defense, Oklahoma. That actually put the Bears in line with the national median. To me, that suggests there’s plenty of potential among this group. If the Baylor D can keep it up, it’s almost inevitable that they’ll do a better job when it comes to stopping the other team from scoring. Blatant Homer’s guesstimate: the Bears surrender about 3.5 fewer points per game in ’09 and capture about three more wins.

Note: This is the first of a three-part series. We also broke down the Baylor defense and Art Briles.

Baylor QB Robert Griffin is generating that kind of buzz this summer.

In case you haven’t heard, Griffin is just the guy to lift the Bears out of the Big 12 cellar. The multipurpose athlete is supposedly equally dangerous on the run as he is passing the ball. He’s the fastest man in the entire state of Texas. We’re talking Vince Young crossed with Tom Brady.

Griffin did dazzle in 2008. He ran 843 yards, gaining 4.9 yards per clip. He completed 60 percent of his passes for more than 2,000 yards, with a stellar 15-3 TD-INT ratio. He also added 13 touchdowns on the ground. The problem is that for all Griffin’s flash, the Bears still finished 4-8 and out of bowl contention, just as they have every year since 1994.

Will Griffin be the next Michael Vick or the next Antwaan Randle-El? No pressure, kid, but this is it.

Running Backs

Junior Jay Finley returns as the starting tailback for the Bears after rushing for nearly 900 yards in 2008. Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry last year and finished with a total of nine touchdowns. At 205 pounds, Finley has a solid frame and runs hard between the tackles. For a change of pace, coach Art Briles can insert redshirt freshman Jarred Salubi. Salubi’s a speed back who could be deadly running outside or catching the ball out of the backfield. He seems perfectly suited for Baylor’s version of the spread.

Receivers

Identifying some legitimate receiving threats could go a long way to hastening Griffin’s progress along.

The development of senior wideout David Gettis appears to be the big story among the Bears’ receivers heading into the fall. Gettis has the physical makeup to be a stud pass catcher, but he just hasn’t put it all together. He struggled throughout the spring with a leg injury, which is about par for the course in his career in Waco.

The number one option is sophomore Kendall Wright, though, back after an impressive debut season in 2008. Wright started eight games last season, catching 50 balls for 649 yards and five TDs. Wright also saw the occasional action on the ground, averaging 5.8 yards on his 29 carries.

To be honest, the rest of the returnees aren’t that inspiring. Watch out for true freshman Darius Jones, though. Jones de-committed from Oklahoma last year to make his way to Waco, so my guess is that he’s not just some chump.

Offensive Line

Can Baylor replace its first NFL draft first rounder since 1996? By the time he left Baylor, All-American LT Jason Smith had become an outstanding all-around lineman and cornerstone of the Bears’ O-line. RT Dan Gay, an honorable mention All-Big 12 selection, also departed. Juco transfers Marquis Franklin and Danny Watkins look to step in and fill the void.

The interior of the Baylor line returns somewhat intact, though. Sophomore LG John Jones started one game last season. Seniors C JD Walton and RG James Barnard started every game in ’07 and ’08.

Bottom line on the line: this bunch has a lot to live up to, but Griffin’s development could help the group exceed expectations.

We also broke down the Baylor defense and Art Briles, too.

We start our in-depth look at the Big 12 landscape this year in the North where graduations affect some, not so much others and, when it comes down to it, scheduling could play the most important part.

The look from here says Nebraska’s combination of scheduling and defense should be enough to get them to the Big 12 championship game at Jerryworld in December. It won’t be easy, though, as Kansas may have something to say about it, as will question marks in the offense.

1. Nebraska

Bill Callahan nearly ran a once-proud program into the ground. At times, he seemed more concerned with throat-slashes, fans “throwing fruit,” and being a general all-around asshat than he did coaching the Big Red machine. Former Husker assistant Bo Pelini took over the helm last season, turning around a team that had gone 5-7 in 2007 (just their second losing season in 40 years – both of them under Callahan) and guided them to 10 wins and a Gator Bowl win.

Pelini will be replacing quarterback Joe Ganz, who threw for 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2008. Sophomore Zac Lee looks to be the one getting the nod, although he’s only thrown two career passes. He’ll have running back Roy Helu behind him, who despite starting just two games in 2008, led the team in rushing yards (803) and rushing touchdowns (7).

Fans hope Pelini, a defensive coach by trade, can bring back the Blackshirts. They’ll rally around 6’4″, 300-pound, senior defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who led the Husker defense in tackles (85), sacks (7.5), interceptions (2 … really, he led the team in picks??), QB hurries (7) and seconds on extra gravy boats at the Omaha Cracker Barrel.

Scheduling is where the Huskers get the biggest break. Yes, they have to play Oklahoma, but it’s in Lincoln. Yes, they have to go to Columbia and Lawrence, but the Tigers and Jayhawks have scheduling problems of their own. In the usual battle of attrition in the Big 12 North, Nebraska should be the team coming out on top and playing for the Big 12 Championship in December.

2. Kansas

The force is strong in Lawrence with pequeña signal-caller Todd Reesing returning for his senior season, and All-American candidate wideout Dezmon Briscoe (he’s still wide open down the sidelines, Venables … cover his ass) set to become the school’s all-time receptions leader before conference play even starts. In my mind, Mark Mangino is one of the best coaches in the country and will have the Rock Chalkers in contention for the North title. In fact, they’ll probably be favored to beat Nebraska in Lawrence on November 14. However, they do have to play Oklahoma (in Lawrence, thankfully) and make trips to Lubbock and Austin. That’s potentially three losses right there and dropping that many games in the North this year will have you sitting at home watching the Big 12 CCG.

3. Missouri

Although they’re the two-time reigning Big 12 North representative in the championship game, head coach Gary Pinkel will be retooling the offense after losing their biggest tool, Chase Daniel. All-world wideout and return specialist Jeremy Maclin will be drawing a paycheck from the Phildalphia Eagles in 2009, so Pinkel will have his cutesy, why-the-hell-are-you-calling-a-trick-play-NOW work cut out for him. Can 6’5″ quarterback Blaine Gabbert and 1,000-yard rusher Derrick Washington be enough on offense? In the Big 12 North, maybe. However, they open conference play with Nebraska, then go to Stillwater seven days later and come back home the next week to host Texas. Mizzou needs to win at least one of those three to have any shot at the Big 12 north title.

4. Colorado

Now we’re just drawing straws for the lower half of the North division. Colorado probably has enough talent to eek out the Kansas and Iowa ag schools, but unless they have a winning record and go bowling (doubtful and seriously doubt it), Dan Hawkins might be coaching intramurals this time next year. The Hawk may be platooning quarterbacks and running backs, and the defense loses six starters. The Buffs’ saving grace is that they get Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri all in Boulder. CU fans shudder at the thought of roadtrips to Austin and Stillwater, though.

5. Kansas State

Goodnight, sweet Prince. Hello again, Bill Snyder. The Wildcat fanbase doesn’t even acknowledge having a B.S. (before-Snyder) football program and, well, maybe they’re right. Snyder did accomplish one of the major turnarounds in college football history, taking the worst program in the history of the sport and making them conference title contenders. However, that was the Big 8. Snyder’s biggest win? A Big 12 conference title game shellacking over OU. The Wildcats must go to Norman on Halloween this year and unless he can raise the ghost of Darren Sproles, that one could get ugly. Other road trips to Lincoln and Lubbock mean … well, you get the picture.

6. Iowa State

A new year, a new Auburn DC running the ship in Ames. Surely Paul Rhoads can’t do worse than Gene Chizik’s two years there. I’ll put on my Harry Carey voice (just go with it) and ask: how does a guy who went 5-19 get the head coach position at Auburn? Austen Arnaud is a talented quarterback, but he might have to carry the load by himself. Unless you’re Vince Young (and he’s not), a one-man show is not going to win in Lawrence, Columbia and Lincoln. ISU also draws OSU and Baylor (in Ames) out of the South. The Bears’ Robert Griffin already went apeshit on the Cyclones once – he may just do it again.

Here we are, folks. The heat is bearing down, we’re relegated to watching Tour de France and tennis (I’m sure some of you are actually baseball fans) and we’re pat-pat-patting our feet in anticipation of late August and early September.

Well, it’s closer than we think. Students will be returning to campus in about a month, meaning fall practices will be starting around the same time. We at TaW are itching to get going now, though.

So, to cure your football fix through the heat and anticipation in July, we’re going to bring you a six-week series previewing the fortunes of all 12 conference teams and their coaches.

We’ll start this week with Nebraska and culminate in August with your Oklahoma Sooners. Here’s a preview of what to expect:

Week of July 6

Nebraska

In his first full season at the helm of the Cornhuskers, Bo Pelini improved a 5-7 team in 2007 to 9-4 in 2008. ponderos will look at what the defensive-minded Pelini can do to capitalize on the Huskers’ big bowl win over Clemson and what the Big Red will look like with junior Zac Lee taking over from the prolific Joe Ganz under center.

Just sayin ...

Week of July 13

Missouri

How will Mizzou look in the post-Chase Daniel era? We’ll find out a lot about Gary Pinkel’s coaching ability as he cobbles together an offense without the talents of Daniel and all-everything receiver Jeremy Maclin.

Iowa State

The Cyclones are hoping that another ex-Auburn defensive coordinator, Paul Rhoads, can turn around the fortunes from the mess left behind by Gene Chizik. ISU is paying Rhoads a reported $5.75 million over 5 years, so at least the financial commitment is there. ponderos will examine ISU’s upcoming 2009 season, which will ride and fall on the shoulders of second-year starter, dual-threat quarterback Austen Arnaud.

Week of July 20

Colorado

Is Dan Hawkins on the hot seat? He’s 8-17 in his three years in Boulder and has yet to have a winning season. TaW’s Blatant Homer will talk about whether Hawkins can put enough wins together in 2009 to save his job.

Kansas

Mark Mangino might be the most underrated coach in the country. He’s 3-1 in bowl games since taking over in 2002, including a big BCS win in the 2007 FedEx Orange Bowl. Oread Boom Kings’ Hiphopopotamus will give a Kansas fan’s perspective of the 2009 season, which will no doubt include a look at quarterback Todd Reesing, who might just be the best signal-caller in the Big 12 north this year.

Week of July 27

Kansas State

“Sleepless in Manhattan” returns to the Purple Power this year as Bill Snyder tries to turn around a program that unceremoniously dumped Ron Prince under dubious circumstances. TaW’s Coach Bo has a, ahem … special affinity for the Wildcats and will bring a unique perspective to the KSU 2009 preview. Don’t forget your Power Towel!

Baylor

TaW’s Big 12 South coverage will begin in Waco where the preseason excitement hasn’t been this high in over 20 years when Grant Teaff was at the helm. Sophomore quarterback Robert Griffin is for real and is already giving coaches around the Big 12 gameplanning fits (H/T, Mike Sherman). TaW’s Blatant Homer will preview the Bears’ 2009 chances under second-year head coach Art Briles, who already has an A&M pelt on his wall and scared the bejeezus out of Tech and Missouri last season.

Week of August 3

Texas Tech

It bears repeating: Tech beat Texas last year. The single-biggest win in corsair Mike Leach’s career caused the entire Longhorn nation to collectively and permanantly lodge their panties in their cracks. The Tortilla Retort’s dedfischer will look at the monumental task Leach has in front of him this year after losing quarterback Graham Harrell and All-American wideout Michael Crabtree.

Oklahoma State

How many years will OSU be a program on the rise? Mike “I’m a man!” Gundy had his Cowboys in the Top 10 at one time last year and many feel they should be there in the preseason, mainly due to dual-threat quarterback Zac Robinson. TaW’s duncansooner takes one for the team to research and document the Pokes’ 2009 season. No word on if he’ll offend any mothers … of children.

Week of August 10

Texas A&M

Second-year head coach Mike Sherman (4-8 in his first year at College Station) would be on one of the hottest seats in the country were it not for other problems in College Station. TaW will look at whether the Sherminator can solve the myriad of problems facing the Aggies in 2009, which include doing something about a 3-10 record to the Lubbock Sand Aggies since the inception of the Big 12, and what looks to be an ugly trip to Norman.



Don't you wish you had him back, Aggies?

Texas

BCS-gate, Asterisk-gate and another year without a conference title. Sounds like nothing much has changed for Mack Brown and the Horns. They’re pinning their hopes on a 2-1 record in the last 3 games against Oklahoma, though. TaW will look at UT’s fortunes with third-place Heisman finisher Colt McCoy returning for his senior season and Sergio Kindle trying desperately to stay on the team, barring his turning any more west campus housing into a Junior’s Party Barn drive-thru.



Add that to the trophy case, Mack.

Week of August 17

Oklahoma

Is this the year Stoops finally gets over the BCS hump? Some publications are putting OU’s defense as tops in the country. Indeed, the Sooners’ defensive line could rival the Harris-Dvoracek front from the early 2000s. Heisman winner Sam Bradford will have to prove his worth after losing four of five of his guys up front, but he still has dangerous weapons like two 1,000-yard rushers in DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown, plus the freakishly-talented Jermaine Gresham.

First day down and the Windmill Tilters are 2-2 in the Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship in Oklahoma City. Alliteration aside, we got bit by Baylor’s backcourt showing some heart against a gassed Nebraska squad. Then in the late game, Tech’s Mike Singletary went happy-go-jacky against A&M to advance the Sand Aggies into today’s game against Mizzou.

Here’s a quick breakdown of today’s games, minus our guys (I’ll be filing that one separately):

#1 Kansas (25-6) vs. #9 Baylor (18-13). If I’d had this post up before the game started, I’d point out more than yesterday’s Big 12 Network color commentator repeatedly saying stupid stuff like “nobody wants to play this Baylor team” or “Baylor’s the kind of team that could run the table in this tournament.” That’s why you’re on the “Big 12 Network,” holmes. Hiphopopotamus at Oread Boom Kings is filing iPhone reports from the Ford and posted an early KU-Baylor preview last night. Just gloss right on past the A&M-Mizzou preview.

This is not the game preview you're looking for ...

#4 K-State (21-10) vs. #5 Texas (21-10). UT’s Dexter Pittman apparently took it personally upon finding out that Queen Ann Cafeteria closed a couple of years ago. When plied with a similar tart rhubarb pie from Marie Callender’s, Pittman aggressively told the UT trainer to get that weak pastry action out of here and took his frustrations out on Colorado’s front line, dunking his way to 26 points and 10 rebounds. UT personnel reportedly are keeping the existence of Boulevard Cafeteria a secret from Dex until after this afternoon’s game against K-State, which comes into today’s matchup winning 10 out of its last 13. Included in that streak is a four-point, overtime win in Austin. First-year starter and second-team All-Big 12er Denis Clemente nailed six threes against the Horns on the way to 44 points. Three of Clemente’s biggest games this year have come against three of their more difficult opponents: 44 against Texas, 26 against Kansas and 33 at Mizzou. Simply put, the Longhorns cannot let Clemente get loose. Inside, Texas did a good job utilizing their size advantage over Colorado, getting 37 points and 11 rebounds from their starting front line of Pittman and Damion James. They’ll have a little more pushback today with K-State’s 6’10” center Darren Kent’s big body in the lane. In their last matchup, Gary Johnson played a huge role for the Horns with his 16 points and 6 boards. However, Johnson’s status is questionable today after he turned his ankle in the second half of yesterday’s game. I’ll tentatively take K-State here advancing to face the Kansas-Baylor winner, based on Clemente and the fact that I’ll believe Pittman is in good enough shape to play back-to-back days when I see it.

#3 Mizzou (25-6) vs. #11 Texas Tech (14-18). Here’s what Singletary did for Tech yesterday off the bench: over a nine minute stretch in the second half, he single-handedly outscored the Aggies 29-18; he brought the Sand Aggies back from a 22-point defecit, setting a Big 12 tournament record for the biggest come from behind win; his 43 points were 18 more than his career high, and; his scoring 29 straight points was the second-biggest, one-man run in NCAA history and the most consecutive points by one player in 48 years. So, Mizzou should pretty much know who to guard today, you’d think. Two other things Tech has working in their favor tonight: 1. The Raiders put away Kansas by 20 last week in Lubbock, so they’re playing a lot better as of late, and; 2. All six of Mizzou’s losses this year have been on the road, including a mystifying 10-point loss to the aforementioned A&M last week. Last time these two teams played, first team All Big 12 selection DeMarre Carroll went for 27 and the Tigers harassed the Red Raiders into 29 turnovers in a nine-point win in Columbia. On paper, it looks like Singletary gave Mizzou a gift by knocking out the Aggies. Carroll and Lyons should be plenty enough inside to end Tech’s season, but don’t discount Mizzou’s horrid (at times) games on the road and that Tech is playing for its life. I’ll take Mizzou here to win and get to a Friday game against the Bedlam winner.

Wednesday, ponderos. The men’s Big 12 tournament starts on Wednesday, NOT Thursday. They’re starting on Wednesday so the NCAA selection committee won’t have any excuses when they shaft one of the teams on Sunday since they will have chosen their teams already by the time the tournament is usually done.

Thank you, inside voice. Go back to whatever you were doing.

Yes, the 13th Big 12 men’s basketball tournament starts tomorrow at the Ford Center (home of yourrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr OKC Thunder!) in idyllic downtown Oklahoma City. While you’re there, head over to the track if you have a moment. Hitting a quinella at Remington Park is dominance defined.

Personal grooming habits have been an issue with the Thunder's new cheerleader.

As always, the first round games are of interest to fans of teams who couldn’t get the first round bye, and those teams who await them on Thursday (not Friday). The team probably most disappointed to be playing on humpday is Texas, which thought it would be able to rest on Wednesday after beating a Griffin-less OU. That was before laying eggs at Stillwater and Lawrence.

Some interesting facts from Big 12 tournament history:

• Only four teams have won the conference tourney: KU (6), OU (3 straight), OSU (2), and ISU (1).
• The conference’s regular season winner has won the post season tournament 7 times: Kansas (5), OSU (1), Iowa State (1).
• This is the second time the Ford Center has hosted the Big 12 tournament. The last time was 2007 when Kansas won an 88-84 thriller over Kevin Durant and four other Longhorns.
• Kansas is the winningest team in the Big 12 tournament at 25-6. OU is second at 19-9.

2009 Big 12 Tournament Bracket

Here’s a quick, just past the boxscores look at the first round games:

#8 Nebraska (18-11) vs. #9 Baylor (17-13). The Huskers don’t have a player over 6’5” who logs significant minutes, yet they were able to beat much bigger teams like Texas and Mizzou in Lincoln, plus a 20-point face-rape of K-State. Nebraska will play about eleventy-million quick, ankle-biting guards who will harass and bug the shit out of you. That might be enough against Baylor, which after looking like they might be this year’s NCAA Cinderella early in the year, turned into the proverbial pumpkin mid-season. After beating K-State and running their record to 15-3, the Bears went to Norman and got absolutely blasted by the Sooners, beginning a 10 of 12 losing streak. The last of those losses was to Nebraska, in Waco, when all Baylor had to do was hang onto the ball in the last two minutes of the game to win. The Bears need Curtis Jerrells and LaceDarius Dunn to light it up for them to have a chance to win. Nebraska should be able to use its speed and ballhawking (they average 8.4 steals per game) to advance to a Thursday matchup with Kansas.

Sure do like pumpkins, Cotton.

#5 Texas (20-10) vs. #12 Colorado (9-21). The Longhorns got a great draw, despite losing their first round bye. They get to play the worst team in the conference in the first round, then are bracketed with K-State should they win. It wasn’t quite that easy when the Horns played the Buffs last, though. Second team all-conference gift receiver Damion James clanked two free throws at the end of regulation that would have won the game. James made up for it in OT, though, single-handedly outscoring the Buffs to beat them in Boulder. A.J. Abrams was on that night, pouring in 29, but UT had no answer for CU wing Cory Higgins and his 34 points. I don’t know what Barnes is going to do to counter Higgins this time around, but it needs to be something different. Still, I’m thinking Texas will be fine here and should get through to play K-State on Thursday with its front line of Pittman, Johnson and James overpowering the young, small CU post players. Colorado has to hope that Higgins goes ballistic again and Texas starts playing WTF ball like they have at times this season.

#7 Oklahoma State (20-10) vs. #10 Iowa State (15-16). This will be a de-facto home game for the Pokes. Considering this is a school that includes barrel-racing championships as a “we own you” stat, you can pretty much guarantee that there will be copious amounts of deer season-orange littering the Ford. OSU is likely already in the NCAA tournament, but at least one win in the conference tournament would seal the deal. The Cowboys are on a good run right now, winning six out of their last seven. They began that run with a 19-point win over the Cyclones in Stillwater. ISU has a mirror-image streak, losers of 11 out of their last 14. Two players to watch are ISU’s Craig Brackins (20.1 ppg) and OSU’s James Anderson (18.9 ppg), the second and third leading scorers in the conference, respectively. OSU’s supporting cast is much better, though, with three other players scoring in double figures. That coupled with the intangible of OK State playing in front of a home crowd should push them past ISU and into a Thursday Bedlam rematch with Oklahoma.

#6 Texas A&M (23-8) vs. #11 Texas Tech (13-18). The Aggies might be the most underrated team in the conference. They’ve quietly rolled up 23 wins, including their last six straight. A&M has signature wins against Mizzou and Texas, both of those at Reed Arena in College Station. Their big weapon is 6’7” wing Josh Carter, who’s hitting 40% from the three point line. His size makes him a tough cover at the 3, but he sometimes has trouble creating his own shot. A&M swept the season series against Tech, although both were tight, including the Aggies’ 6-point, foul-plagued win in Lubbock. Tech has gone from the team nobody wanted to play in the NCAA not too many years ago to nearly the Big 12 doormat, losing 16 out of its last 19. Raiders’ fans would like to say they’ve seen improvement since East Central Oklahoma dropped 167 points on them back in November, but they really can’t (unless you count not having a buck and a half scored on you again as an improvement). A&M wins this one easy and advances to play Mizzou on Thursday.

Since I’m running so late with the Baylor wrap-up from last week, I thought I’d just fold it into the Tech one. If you watched the Tech game, you realize that the breakdown on that one’s going to be pretty easy.

So, let’s start with Baylor in Waco. I had been there two weeks earlier for the Lady Sooners’ game and the general atmosphere was markedly different. Two weeks ago, traffic was backed up before the game almost to I-35 (a mile and a half, or so). Afterwards, we had enough time to listen to the entire Zeppelin III album before getting out of the damned parking lot. I didn’t see many empty seats at all in the arena and two of them were occupied by Mr. and Mrs. George W. Bush and a shit ton of Secret Service agents. Let’s just say it was a friendly audience for the ex-prez and my first thought was I’m not in South Austin anymore.

Fast forward to this past Wednesday. The arena looked maybe half full, and the Golden Tit only seats about 10K. We moved from our rafters seats down to about 25 rows up on the 50. There was a pretty vocal Sooner contingent there, too. It felt like an OU at Baylor football game.

Our original seats were in the areola.

The summary

Baylor came out in a 2-3 zone and made OU work everytime they tried to get the ball into Blake. It worked for nearly the entire half. It wasn’t until a couple of easy dunks by Blake and Pattillo in the last minute of the half that OU started pulling away a little.

That little zone they ran will work as long as OU isn’t shooting well and, to Baylor’s benefit, that’s exactly what happened in the first 18 minutes of the game. They also were able to put a couple of big bodies on Blake down low and did a nice job of quickly double-teaming whenever he got the ball down, then cutting off passing angles.

Capel must have seen something in that first half, though, and Scott Drew helped him out by losing his mind and having his team open the second half in a man-to-man. OU’s first time down with the ball, they ran a simple, well-executed back pick by Willie for Blake who rolled from the high post into an unbelievably open area in front of the basket. Baylor’s inability to recognize the switch meant that when AJ dribbled out to the right elbow, all he had to do was zip a bounce pass inside to Blake for a dunk.

The game was within three points midway through the second half as OU went without a FG for 7 minutes and Baylor went on an 8-2 run. Then something lovely and beautiful happened: OU squashed the run. Beautiful because we’re not used to seeing that under Sampson. Capel called a timeout to put a tourniquet on OU’s offense and the Sooners promptly came out of the timeout and pushed the lead back up to 11 in a hurry. Sampson would have obviously called the timeout, too, but would likely have had them ratchet up their defense and hope to win by those same three points.

AJ sent the lapsed Baptists home shortly thereafter with maybe the highlight of the year for the Sooners, and with Blake throwing down thunder dunks every night, that’s saying something. With the clock running down and the ball getting thrown around, Blake zipped a pass out to the top of the key to AJ who caught it in midair and, without landing and setting his feet, drained a 30-foot three-pointer. You could hear howling from the Sooner section and the pitter-patter of “screw you guys, I’m goin’ home” in the stairwells.

What went well

Oh no you di'in't!

What went wrong

Rebounding. OU was outrebounded for just the fourth time this year (USC, Texas, A&M), but you would think that a team with the nation’s leading glass cleaner would never get out-boarded. The Sooners only had 28 rebounds the entire game, 20 of those from Blake and Pattillo. Better teams will take better advantage of that down the road (see: Missouri).

What’s next

Tech … here we go.

The summary

The game was over as soon as Pat Knight decided to throw a limp-wristed piece of Euro trash at Blake with no help of a double team. Knight admitted after the game that the plan was to just let Blake get his and shut everybody else down. Good call. Blake promptly went out and became only the third Sooner (Tisdale and Adams, holla) to ever notch a 40-20 game, and he only played 31 minutes.

Other milestones Blake achieved thanks to the Sand Aggies “Death in the Afternoon” defense:

In admitting he made a mistake by single-covering Blake (then letting Cade get happy-go-jacky from downtown), Knight offered this superlative about Blake:

“Have you guys ever seen the movie, ‘The Terminator?’ That’s what that kid is like,” Knight said. “That kid has no facial expressions. He just plays and it’s like every kid out there on him is like Sarah Connor, and he’s just going to take his time and kill him”

Willie and Cade played very well, too, giving OU the lethal inside-outside punch that could get them to Detroit.

What went well

This guy …

I can haz Naismith?

And this guy …

THIS IS SOOOONA!

Cade Davis. He was unconscious on Saturday, raining five from downtown (three of them in a :50 second first half span) after not making one for 10 days. Cade gave OU a big lift off the bench and it’s nice to see somebody else besides Juan be able to provide some quality depth.

What went wrong

What’s next

The Sooners get a week off to rest and heal up a little. Blake’s battling a touch of bursitis in his elbow and AJ’s battling “a number of ailments.” OU goes to Austin next weekend for an 8 p.m. tip at the HumDrum. I’m so frickin there.

It’s been 30 years since Baylor beat Oklahoma in basketball. It will be at least 31 after tonight. The Bears looked to be the favorite for 2008-09 Cinderella darling early in the season, cracking the Top 25 after beating then-No. 14 Arizona State and racing out to a 15-3 record by late January.

Then they went to Oklahoma on Jan. 24 and that’s where the wheels came off for these Bears. Blake went for 20 and 17, and four Sooner starters scored in double-figures in OU’s 19-point win. Baylor hasn’t won since, dropping five straight and really only competing in two of them – a 10-point loss to Kansas at home and a 7-point decision to Tech in Lubbock.

What does Baylor need to do tonight to stay with the #2 Sooners?

Shoot the ball

One thing Scott Drew’s team can do is shoot the long ball. The Bears rained 12 threes on their last trip to Norman, eight between the guard combo of Curtis Jerrells and LaceDarius Dunn. They’ll need to light it up again tonight in Waco to have any shot.

Spread it around

Five Bears average double-figures in points per game, and it would serve them well to spread that wealth tonight. Jerrells is a pure scorer, but he won’t beat Oklahoma by himself. They’ll need to balance him out by rotating the ball to the backside when he gets bottled up. This goes back to the first point – Baylor needs to hit from the outside to have any chance tonight.

Make OU play defense

One of the Sooners’ Achilles heels has been that it gets complacent on defense at times. Teams who can exploit that will have success. Baylor will be playing in front of a home crowd on national TV tonight and at 3-6 in the conference, they’re definitely sloping towards the downside of the NCAA tournament bubble. They desperately want to end their five-game losing streak and what better opponent and time to do it than against OU tonight.

What does OU need to do tonight to win?

Play Oklahoma basketball

OU’s starting five is as solid as anybody’s in the country and Juan Pattillo is quickly becoming one of the best sixth-men in college basketball. OU just needs to play smart, feed the Beast and defend the perimeter.

Don’t lose focus

Baylor likes to get at you early in the game. OU has a tendency to let inferior teams stay around much too long. This might not be Kansas or Missouri we’re playing tonight, but Jerrells can score and Baylor’s little bandbox of a gym can get loud if it has a reason to. OU needs to eliminate that reason.