Tilting at Windmills

So the annual OU v UT game is this week and while OU has suffered a frustrating start to the year for the most part UT has had an easy route through a very easy early schedule.

Five weeks later what do we know about these teams.

OU Defense v UT Offense

OU’s Defense while good is not a dominant/great defensive unit. At LB, Travis Lewis is not playing anywhere near the same form as last year, and Ryan Reynolds is still only really effective at or near the LOS (and in the Miami game not even then). Dominique Franks is having a rough start to the year, not showing anything like the form he had at the end of last year. OU’s front four while very good is not great, and for reasons unknown OU is not really using their depth here very well at all.

Finally, OU continues to get hurt on 3^rd down by using their 3 backer scheme no matter the distance or opponents personnel. The middle of the field continues to be a problem area, where TEs/WRs are habitually able to settle and find 10 to 13 yards at will it seems.

That being said the OU defense is still forcing turnovers and generating a large number of negative plays in the running game, putting teams into 3^rd and long situations which are eventually leading to punts.

UT is clearly not playing at the same level of efficiency on offense as they did last year. Colt clearly misses both Quan Cosby and Chris Obgonnaya as other passing game options.  Colt in addition is getting off to slow starts and is throwing more INTs than last year.

Miami is probably close to UT in overall offensive talent with their clear edge at RB negated by UT’s edge at QB, so it would seem that OU would be able to hold UT to something in the 21-28 point range.

OU by a very wide margin will be the best defense that UT has seen, especially in terms of DL and DB play.

However, UT clearly will try to exploit the middle of the field with a flex WR pretending to a TE. It’s this area where UT presents the biggest threat to OU’s defense the ability to convert 3^rd and medium to long (5 yards to 8 yards) with brutal efficiency by hitting receivers in this soft middle area, past where Reynolds is effective in coverage.

Will OU have an answer to this attack now in its’ 3^rd year (year 1 Jermicheal Finley, year 2 Shipley, year3 Buckner)? The things that won’t change part of this article would indicate, no.  But there’s always hope of some kind of surprise.

Special Teams

OU appears to have fixed most of the problems related to their kickoff coverage, and Tress Way so far is doing a much better job of punting. UT’s big kickoff for a TD and field position given up by poor punting were both big issues for OU last year in Dallas.

Both teams seem to have a game breaking player at punt returner, Shipley is excelling in that role and Dominique Franks while scaring OU fans at times seems about due to taking a punt back the distance.

UT’s kickoff coverage did look suspect versus CU, but I think OU has to really hope that UT is not really using that coverage team much.

The only real clear edge for UT is probably if this game comes down to a long FG. OU has no game here, UT might.

OU Offense v UT Defense

OU’s offense is clearly struggling to find anything approaching the consistency of last year.Injuries and new starters have really taken the OU 60 point machine and made it something like a 24 point machine.

Sam coming back really gives OU a puncher’s chance on offense without him OU was probably looking at a point total in the 17-20 range.

The OU OL is doing a decent job at pass protection with some improvement week over week, running block is still a struggle but again there were glimmers of improvement last week.

Miami is probably not as talented as UT’s D overall, especially at secondary, but OU will have faced a D with equal overall team speed and they clearly struggled in that game protecting the passer and running the football. On the opposite side, the best passing game UT has faced in Texas Tech put up big yardage again and kept Tech in that game into the 4^th QTR, so UT’s pass defense still has some issues.

Now, if Sam’s return is going to have any real impact, OU’s going to have to have some WRs step up their game to provide Sam with a Shipley like playmaker. If Ryan Broyles can really come back from his shoulder injury suffered against Miami that would be a huge boost.

There were also signs versus Baylor that Dejuan Miller (perhaps OU’s most physically talented WR) and Brandon Caleb can create big plays for Sam.

The real wildcard in this game on offense has to be Demarco Murray. He was the difference in the duel between Sam and McCoy in 2007, and his non presence in 2008 played a role in OU losing in 2008. Between the two teams, he’s probably the only identifiable difference maker at RB and in his role as check down slot WR he could also be a key move the chains piece for the OU offense.

I’ve tried avoiding all the usual football clichés but obviously big special teams plays (blocked punts, returns, kickoff returns), turnovers, and penalties (especially for OU’s offense) are going to play a huge role.